Study On Fertility Intention Of Women Of Childbearing Age In Anhui Province Based On Logistic Model

Fertility is the root of racial reproduction and the natural behavior of individuals.Everyone has the right and freedom to choose to reproduce or not.However,as part of the complex and changeable society,individual behaviors affect the society,and in turn the society also affects the individual life.Therefore,the fertility is not only the independent behaviors of individuals or families,but also related to the common destiny of the country and even all mankind.Fertility behavior in China is greatly influenced by the state policies.Particularly,the "comprehensive two-child" policy proposed by the Fifth Plenary Session of the 18th CPC Central Committee in 2015 has greatly affected the fertility intention and behavior of many families.As the main body of fertility,females in the traditional society always have no say in the reproductive decision-making,but today with the improvement of the status of women and the awakening of female consciousness,women have more and more right to speak in the decision-making of fertility.The study of fertility intention of women of childbearing age is not only helpful to predict the fertility level of the country or region,but also conductive to carry out population planning and policy formulation for the government of the country or region by referencing the fertility level.Based on the data of the 2017 National Fertility Survey Questionnaire in Anhui Province,this dissertation analyzes the basic situation of reproductive willingness of women of childbearing age in Anhui Province under the policy of "comprehensive two-child" by using SPSS software,and establishes the logistic model influencing fertility intention.In this study,three dimensions of child number,childbearing time and gender preference were taken as the main measurement criteria of fertility intention.It was concluded that the average number of ideal children for women of childbearing age in Anhui Province was 1.93,and the average number of planned children was 1.74.In terms of time,40.6%of families did not plan to have children,while the proportion of families planning to have children in 2019 was the highest at 13.6%.The average ages of one child,two children and three children were 28.86 years old,31.98 years old and 33.06 years old,respectively.Compared with the actual childbearing ages in 2015,in which the childbearing ages of one child,two children and three children were 26.35,29.57,and 31.96,the planning childbearing ages of the subjects in this survey are two years older than national actual fertility ages.In terms of the gender preference,more people prefer "sons and daughters" or "boys preference" slightly higher than "girls".Through the comparison of fertility intention with different groups,it was found that age,hukou nature,floating time and geographical area had great influence on fertility intention.There was a parabola relationship between age and the number of willing children.The most willing women were 30-34 years old,and the average number of children was 1.83;The 20-29 age group had the fastest growth rate of fertility intention,and after 30-34 years,it gradually decreased with the increase risk of women's reproduction.But at the same time,driven by the two-child policy,women in the 40-49 age group had a trend of snatching children and increased their willingness to bear children.The nature of household registration affected the number of willing children.The number of agricultural women of childbearing age in this survey was significantly higher than that of non-agricultural population.74.2%of the agricultural population had more than one willing child,higher about 11 percent than the non-agricultural population.The educational level was inversely proportional to the fertility intention of women of childbearing age.This study overturned the traditional idea that the floating population's desire to have children was stronger than that of the local registered population,and proved that it was not the "mobility" but the"length of the floating time" affected the number of willing children of women of childbearing age.An approximate U-shaped graph between the floating time and the number of willing children was established,in which the initial few years(less than 5 years)of mobile groups belonged to its reproductive boom period,and with the increase of floating time,the fertility willingness gradually weakened.But when the floating time reached a certain time(more than 15 years),the life of floating population tended to be stable,and the stable fertility environment would increase fertility willingness.Then,according to the number and sex dimension of fertility intention,the logistic model was established by incorporating factors of individual,family and social into the independent variables.It was found that the individual factors such as age,education level,and hukou nature,family factors such as the ages of husband and wife and the number of siblings,and social factors such as geographical all produced vatying degrees of impact on the number and gender preference of fertility intention.On this basis,it is suggested to pay attention to women of childbearing age,improve Anhui public health service system and pre-school education system,and provide stable reproductive conditions for women of childbearing age,guaranteeing the harmonious and stable development of population.