Research On The Influence Of Family Population Structure On Chinese Residents' Consumption ——Based On The Data Of CFPS

Consumption is one of the three driving forces for China's economic development.It is the strongest driving force for China's economic growth at a time when the other two are weak.But at present,the overall consumption demand of Chinese residents is insufficient,and the consumption structure needs to be upgraded.Expanding domestic demand and improving the level of consumption are of great significance to China's social and economic development.The family is the most basic unit of the society,which determines the dynamic change of the consumption of goods and services.At present,there are some problems in the family population of Our country,such as the miniaturization,the coexistence of fewer children and aging,and the imbalance of gender ratio.In this dual context,it is of great significance to explore the impact of family population structure on residents' consumption and put forward specific suggestions based on the results of model estimation for improving residents' happiness and promoting social and economic development.This paper selects the data of the Four periods of China Family Panel Studies(CFPS)from 2012 to 2018 to explore two basic questions: firstly,Whether the characteristic variables of family demographic structure have an impact on the overall consumption,consumption grade and consumption type of residents,and how and to what extent.Secondly,compare and analyze the differences between urban and rural areas.Through literature review and theoretical research,this paper determined that the core explanatory variables were children's population proportion,elderly population proportion,female population proportion and family size to represent the family population structure.The fixed-effects panel model and quantile model were used for empirical research.The empirical results show that: firstly,the proportion of children population and female population has a driving effect on the per capita consumption of residents,and a stronger driving effect on the lower level of consumption of families,both of which have the strongest driving effect on the per capita consumption of culture,education and entertainment.Secondly,the population ratio of the elderly has a certain inhibitory effect on per capita consumption,and it has a stronger inhibitory effect on households with medium consumption level,but it has a pulling effect on per capita medical care consumption and per capita housing consumption.Thirdly,family size has a certain inhibitory effect on per capita consumption,and the inhibitory effect is stronger for families with lower consumption level.Among all consumption types,family size has the strongest inhibitory effect on per capita consumption of culture,education and entertainment.Fourthly,there are obvious differences in the impact of family population structure on the overall consumption,consumption grade and consumption type of residents in different urban and rural areas.The innovation of this paper is as follows: firstly,the theoretical analysis is thorough.The influencing mechanism of household population characteristics on residents' consumption is comprehensively analyzed and a theoretical model is constructed.Secondly,it has enriched the research perspective and verified the influence of family demographic characteristic variables on Chinese residents' consumption from multiple perspectives.Thirdly,the method is novel and quantile model is selected to study the consumption grade,which solves the problem of small sample size and lack of information caused by the traditional classification method,and divides the consumption grade carefully.