Research On The Impact Of Human Capital On The Complexity Of China’s Export Technology

In recent years,China’s demographic dividend advantage has continued to fade,environmental problems have become increasingly prominent,and Sino-US trade frictions have continued.Only relying on processing trade to produce low value-added products to ensure export volume has no advantage in international trade competition.The sudden COVID-19 epidemic in 2020has caused a severe recession in the world economy,with a sharp reduction in international trade and investment,and an intensified economic deglobalization.Economic practice after the epidemic has shown that the key to promoting the sustainable development of China’s foreign trade is to increase the production and export of high value-added products in the value chain,use effective supply to create effective demand,improve China’s international trade status and export products’ international competitiveness,and reduce foreign risk exposure.In this regard,the Fifth Plenary Session of the 19 th Central Committee of the Party emphasized China will form a new development pattern centered on "internal circulation," and speed up a "dual circulation" growth model in which "internal circulation" and "international circulation" promote each other.Deepening supply-side structural reforms and increasing the production and export of high value-added products to expand the domestic market and become the "world market"."Export technology complexity" is an indicator that measures the technical content and product structure of a country’s export products,and can reflect its position in the global value chain.Countries with high export technology complexity mean that they produce high-tech products that are located in the high value-added links of the global value chain,not limited to low value-added links such as processing and assembly.Therefore,effectively increasing the complexity of export technology under the new development pattern of "dual cycle" is of great significance to promoting the high-quality development of China’s foreign trade.The technical content of the product is inseparable from the quality of the technical personnel producing the product,so human capital is the key factor.In the context of the "new era",the state attaches great importance to personnel training and labor market reform.If China wants to move from a "big trading country" to a "strong trading country",it must use human capital to improve the technological content of its export products.This article aims to explore the impact of human capital on China’s inter-provincial export technology complexity.First,Analyzed the human capital theory and the export technology complexity theory,as well as the direct and indirect influence mechanism of human capital on the export technology complexity.Secondly,carry out the calculation and analysis of the human capital and export technology complexity of various provinces in China from 2010 to 2018.This paper adopts the modified Hausmann(2007)method to measure the complexity of export technology in various provinces of China;in order to overcome the shortcomings of only using education years to measure human capital and ignoring the quality of education,the rate of return on education is introduced to measure human capital.And further divided the calculation results of the two into east,middle and west for comparative analysis.It was found that the changing trends of China’s human capital and export technology complexity were roughly the same,both of which increased year by year and showed a stepwise decrease of "East-Middle-West".Then establish static and dynamic models and introduce economic growth,foreign trade openness,R&D intensity,infrastructure and foreign direct investment as control variables,empirically test the impact of human capital on the complexity of export technology,and draw the following conclusions: First,manpower Capital can significantly promote the increase in the complexity of China’s export technology in various provinces,and it has the greatest promotion effect on the eastern provinces,and the western provinces have the least promotion effect.Second,economic growth as a control variable can significantly promote the increase in the complexity of export technology in China’s provinces,while foreign direct investment,foreign trade openness and infrastructure have obvious regional differences in promoting the increase in the complexity of export technology.Foreign direct investment promotes the increase in the complexity of export technology across the country and the eastern and western provinces.The degree of openness in foreign trade promotes the increase in the complexity of export technology across the country and eastern provinces.Infrastructure has a role in promoting the increase in the complexity of export technology across the country and western provinces.Third,in the regression results,the control variable of R&D intensity only passed the significance test in the dynamic panel regression results with a small impact coefficient.The reason may be that China’s R&D intensity is still relatively weak compared to other influencing factors.This kind of intensity is difficult to break through the threshold value required for technological innovation,and ultimately leads to little effect on technological upgrading.Fourth,export behavior has a certain degree of technological dependence,that is,the complexity of export technology in the previous period has a significant impact on the complexity of export technology in the next period.Finally,based on the above research conclusions,in order to better increase the stock of human capital and boost the complexity of China’s export technology,this article puts forward corresponding policy recommendations: First,continue to implement the strategy of strengthening the country with talents to increase the stock of human capital.Second,Make rational use of foreign direct investment to increase the contribution rate of human capital.Third,promote the cross-border and trans-regional flow of talents to improve the efficiency of human capital allocation.