| With the rapid economic development,the quality of life continues to improve,and the people’s health awareness is increasing,under the continuous improvement of medical service facilities and the social security system,the average life expectancy has increased substantially,and the trend of population aging has become more severe,which has caused a serious impact on the labor supply and pension balance of countries around the world.China entered an aging society in 2000,with the unique phenomenon of a huge population base and getting old before getting rich.In 2019.our country’s old-age dependency ratio reached 17.8%,far surpassing western developed countries,and the natural population growth rate is declining year by year,the opportunity period for the advantage of the population structure has ceased to exist,the demographic dividend has disappeared.In order to solve the above problems,our country draws on the experience of Western countries and plans to formulate and implement a delayed retirement policy.Although the delay retirement policy has not yet formally implemented,studying its impact on pension accounts,labor employment,and demographic dividends has strong practical value and theoretical significance.Based on the theory of behavioral economy and time allocation,this paper improves the expression of the government pension income and expenditure account after the implementation of the delayed retirement policy from the perspective of individual utility maximization.By introducing the factors of fertility rate and human capital level,the two-period generation overlap model is expanded into a three-period generation overlap model that includes fertility.After setting and correcting the relevant parameters,we compared the per capita capital accumulation and per capita savings that indicate rate of the second demographic dividend,the percentage of consumption in old age to total consumption and the change in personal utility that indicate the willingness to retire under delay retirement policy implementation alone,separate implementation of multiple birth policies,as well as two policies jointly implemented by means of a numerical example.The results of the study show that under different asset output elasticities,whether the implementation of the delayed retirement policy alone or the separate implementation of the fertility policy to encourage childbearing will change people’s consumption decisions,leading to a relatively increase in people’s consumption in old age,the savings rate at a young age drops,and it affects investment,which leads to a decline in per capita capital accumulation.The utility obtained by individuals shows a downward trend due to the reduction of leisure time and the reduction of consumption in the youth.Moreover,when the two policies are implemented together,the decline of the above indicators is greater than that of implementing the policy alone.The quantitative demographic dividend generated by the increase in the savings rate and the increase in social investment will no longer exist;On the other hand,this paper uses regression analysis to verify the externality of human capital,and after further analysis of examples,it is found that although the level of human capital in equilibrium will not affect the proportion of consumption in the elderly period,but it is positively correlated with per capita capital accumulation,savings rate,and personal utility.The increase in human capital level will produce a second demographic dividend,and the demographic dividend generated by this approach is defined as a qualitative demographic dividend.In response to the above research results,combined with the reality of China’s increasingly aging population,and from the perspective of continuing to tap the second demographic dividend,it is suggested that when the Chinese government implements the delayed retirement policy,it can implement a gradual delay retirement policy,and in this process,improve the staff training system,increase public education and higher education expenditure,and play the role of intergenerational education to accelerate the accumulation of quality demographic dividends,in order to alleviate the negative impact of the delayed retirement policy on the second demographic dividend. |
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