| The development of economy and population of China have undergone significant changes since 2012.In terms of the development of the economy,China's economic growth has entered a“shifting period",with a rapid decline in growth rate,which has fallen from the past double-digit to about 6.7 percent in 2016.From the point of population development,China's working-age population has entered the drop channel,namely the“demographic dividend”gradually turned into the"demographic debt",whether on total population,or in terms of absolute quantity.The demographic dividend is often regarded as an important foundation for China's rapid economic growth.The current situation unavoidably concerns China's future population changes will become the resistance of economic development under the background of rapidly declining in the economic growth rate and the demographic dividend disappears.This dissertation makes a deep thinking on this issue.If we predict the future relationship between China's population changes and the economic development in the traditional thinking of the demographic dividend,It has limitations and always will be introduced to pessimism attitude towards the relationship between the China's future population change and economic growth.If we regard improving the quality of population as one of the core elements of“demographic dividend",and investigate the relationship between China's future population changes and economic growth,it will have a completely different picture.Namely,the future population changes will towards to the direction of beneficial to China's economic growth for a long time.To get this conclusion,this dissertation has made these efforts:1)This dissertation discusses the limitations of using the traditional demographic dividend to explain the relationship between population change and economic growth.The limitations display in two aspects.Firstly,the traditional demographic dividend view is based on the thinking mode of neoclassical economic growth theory in order to examine the relationship between population change and economic growth.Therefore,it has the limitation which is similar to the neoclassical economic growth theory to explain economic growth.Secondly,the traditional demographic dividend view emphasizes too much the influence of population structure on the economic growth in the process of population transition,whereas ignores the influence of the impact of demographic changes,such as population quality change,on economic growth in the process of population transition.This dissertation proves the limitations of the traditional demographic dividend through studying empirically on the the relationship between population change and economic growth in the process of economic development.2)Based the its own understanding of the population transition process,this dissertation redefines the demographic dividend and construct a measurement index of the demographic dividend under the new perspective.This dissertation regards changes in age structure of population and changes in population quality as an organic whole in the process of population transition,to examine their joint effects on economic growth,and at the same time,to establish the econometric model and estimate the model by using the international panel data,construct and estimate themeasurement index of the demographic dividend from the new perspective.3)Based on its own understanding and definition,this dissertation predicts the maximum potential space for China's human capital stock growth in the future.By analyzing and predicting the relationship between future demographic changes and economic growth in China,this dissertation quantitatively prove that China can make population change be beneficial to China's future economic growth in the long-term through maintaining a rapid growth in China's human capital stock.4)Combined with the results of theoretical research and empirical analysis,.this dissertation puts forward strategic arrangements to promote the continuation of the demographic dividend in the new era from three aspects which are expanding the scale of education investment,promoting fair distribution of public education resources and enhancing education quality.There are nine chapters in this dissertation,which can be divided into five parts from the respect of logic:The first part including the first chapter is the introduction.It has the function of outline,mainly including three aspects.Firstly,it discusses the core issues,research background and research significance of this dissertation.Secondly,it expounds the research ideas,content,framework design and some important basic concepts of this dissertation.Thirdly,it summarizes the innovation points,limitations and future research directions.The second part is the theoretical part of this dissertation,including chapter two and chapter three.The second chapter reviews the concept of the demographic dividend in the traditional sense,and mainly includes two parts.First,it reviews the demographic transition theory,and introduces the concept of demographic transition,stage division,the cause of the demographic transition.It explores the interaction rules between population age structure change and the population quality change under the background of demographic transition.Second,it reviews the concept of the demographic dividend,mainly including the origin,definition and the dynamic mechanism of the demographic dividend to influence economic growth.The third chapter makes reflect on the limitations of the traditional demographic dividend on the basis of the second chapter reviewing the traditional sense of the concept of the demographic dividend from three aspects.They are the development of the theory of economic growth,the latest progress of the study of the demographic dividend,analysis changes of the population factors in the process of China's demographic transition.Thus,it redefines the demographic dividend as followed:A sort of population condition which is caused by the combined effects of the change of population age structure and the improvement of population quality after the onset of the demographic transition and beneficial to economic growth.The purpose of this part is to lay a theoretical foundation for the discourse.The third part focuses on the concept of the demographic dividend,includingthe fourth and fifth chapters,having a descriptive analysis of the relationship between China's population development and economic development.The fourth chapter discusses the Chinese demographic background of discussing the demographic dividend.The main content includes three parts.First,it is Chinese characteristics ofdemographic transition.Second,it is a detailed analysis of the trend of China'sfertility rate change,and it is believed that China's total women quantity and fertility rate will be kept at a low level for a long time in the future.Third,it is a brief description of the history and present situation of the change of population size,population age structure and population quality,and it also predicts the development trend of the three factors.The fifth chapter illustrates the relationship between economic growth and the China's demographic dividend.The main contents include two parts.First,it discusses the causes of the formation of China's demographic dividend,the analysis of the impact of the demographic dividend on economic growth and the analysis of the reason why China can fully realizing the demographic dividend.Second,it discusses the difficulties of economic development in China which caused by the disappearance of the traditional demographic dividend,and scholars' response to the difficulties.The main conclusions of this part include three factors.First,the traditional demographic dividend has great support for the rapid growth of China's economy since the reform and opening up.Second,it has limitations to predict the relationship between the future of the changes in China's population and economic growth in the traditional thought of the demographic dividend after 2015.As the working-age population begins to decline,the traditional demographic dividend gradually disappears.Third,in the next 30 years,China's population size will remain stable,and the aging of the population will accelerate,while it has a great room to improve population quality.Therefore,the change of population quality is the decisive factor to decide the relationship between China's future population changes and economic growth in a long-term.The purpose of this part is to provide a realistic background for the situation of population development and economic development in China for the following empirical analysis.Then,it attempts to expound the basic outline of the relationship between China's demographic change and economic growth in the future.The fourth part is empirical analysis,including chapters six,seven and eight.The sixth chapter is the research on the relationship between the new demographic dividend and the economic growth of China,which is the empirical support for the third chapter on the reflection of the traditional demographic dividend.The author introduces human capital as the key factors influencing the total factor productivity to economic growth model containing the population age structure variables on the basis of the new economic growth theory.According to the model,it constructs dynamic panel model and using the Chinese provincial panel data from 2000 to 2013 to estimate the model.It finds that the change of education attainment can influence the impact of the change of population age structure on economic growth in the case of other conditions unchanged.It reflects it has limitations to use the traditional demographic dividend to explain the relationship between the population change and economic growth.Chapter seven demonstrates the prediction of China's demographic dividend under the new perspective,which is the empirical support for definition of the demographic dividend in chapter three.The research purpose of this chapter has two.One is to construct a measurement index of the demographic dividend under the new angle of view.The role of the measurement index is similar to the role of“dependency ratio",helping to quantitatively analyze the relationship between population change and economic growth.Second,it predicts the relationship between economic growth and China's future population changes through using the new measurement index.Empirically,This chapter proves that the improvement of population quality can make population change be beneficial to China's future economic growth in the long-term under a certain improvement rate of population quality.Chapter eight discusses about the possibility of the continuation of China's demographic dividend,which is further research along the chapter seven.Chapter seven finds that the improvement of population quality can make population change be beneficial to China's future economic growth in the long-term under a certain improvement rate of population quality.However,Will China achieve the rapid growth of human capital stock(population quality)?This is the key question discussed in chapter eight.In chapter eight,it regards the average education attainment of working-age population as a measurement index of human capital stock.Through decomposing the annual increment of China's human capital stock from 1950 to 2010 and differences of human capital stock change among Chinese,Japanese and Korean,It finds that population aging will become the negative effects of improving human capital stock of China in the future.Then,the author uses the perpetual inventory method and China's sixth census data to forecast the growth potential of Chinese human capital stock in the future.The conclusion is that China may accumulate human capital in the future faster than in the past thirty years.However,the premise condition is that it needs to fully tap the human capital growth potential.In general,the fourth part of this dissertation carries on the empirical analysis.First,it argues the limitations of the traditional demographic dividend.Second,it illustrates the rationality of the concept of the new demographic dividend.Third,it demonstrates the feasibility that China can make population change be beneficial to China's future economic growth in the long-term through maintaining a rapid growth in China's human capital stock.The fifth part,namely chapter nine,make a summary of the whole dissertation and discusses the strategies that can help China make population change be beneficial to China's future economic growth in the long-term through maintaining a rapid growth in China's human capital stock from three aspects which are expanding the scale of education investment,promoting fair distribution of public education resources and enhancing education quality. |
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