China’s Aging Population Impact On Economic Growth Path Statistical Analysis

According to relevant data,China’s population ageing level has gradually increased.In just two decades,the proportion of the elderly population aged 65 and over in the total population has increased from 6.7% in 1998 to 11.8% in 2018,an increase 5.1 percentage points.There are two reasons why China ’s population aging level is developing so fast.One is that China ’s strict family planning policy since the 1980 s has led to a decline in the fertility rate of the population.The second is that China ’s economy has experienced rapid growth since the reform and opening up.Development,the quality of life of the people has been greatly improved,and the advancement of medical technology has reduced the mortality rate of the population.According to the economic growth theory,the main factors driving economic growth are capital accumulation,labor supply,and technological progress.China’s great economic achievements since the reform and opening up have mainly benefited from the reduced social support burden and the demographic dividend brought by a large number of age-appropriate labor.However,the increase in the proportion of the elderly population will exert tremendous pressure on the labor supply and social support burden.Although China has implemented a comprehensive second child policy,in the foreseeable future,the proportion of the elderly population will increase rapidly,and the number of young people and the working population will decrease.The trend is very obvious,so in this case,it is necessary to study the impact of China’s population aging on economic growth.On the basis of combing the theories and literature related to population aging and economic growth,this paper proposes two impact mechanisms: healthy human capital and educational human capital from the perspective of human capital.Based on the provincial panel data of 31 provinces,municipalities and autonomous regions in China from 2003 to 2017,a fixed-effect regression model method was used to verify the significance of the impact of China’s population aging on economic growth.The structural equation model is used to examine the significance and impact of the path of population aging on economic growth through healthy human capital and educational human capital.A multi-group path analysis method is used to empirically analyze whether there is a significant difference in the path of the effects of population aging on economic growth in the northern and southern provinces of China and its effects,and draw relevant conclusions for this article and put forward policy recommendations for this article.The conclusions are as follows:(1)It is verified that the current aging of China’s population will promote economic growth.(2)The impact of population aging on the economic growth path through education human capital is not significant,but the improvement of education human capital can promote economic growth.(3)Population aging can promote economic growth by promoting investment in healthy human capital.(4)There is a significant difference between the North and the North in the path of population aging through the impact of healthy human capital on economic growth.The total effect of the path of healthy human capital in the southern provinces is slightly higher than that in the North;there is no significant difference in the path of educational human capital.