The Impact Of Population Aging And Human Capital On Economic Growth

One of the most important factors that has allowed our economy to grow rapidly since reform and opening up is population.However,with rising incomes and better health care,birth and death rates are falling and the problem of an ageing population is becoming more serious.One of the most important tasks in China today is to maintain high-quality economic development,and the growing aging population will have an impact on our economic growth.In the context of modern social development,research on the impact of aging on economic growth and its transmission mechanism can complement the relevant theories,and also help analyze the specific impact of demographic changes on China’s economic development based on China’s actual situation,which is very important for the long-term healthy development of China’s economy.The structure of this paper is as follows: first explain the background of demographic change and economic development in China,understand the current development situation in China,elaborate the significance of this study,and organize the relevant literature at home and abroad.Then,this paper defines the concepts related to population aging and human capital,introduces the basic theories of population aging and human capital and their implications for economic growth,analyzes the current situation of population aging and human capital,and analyzes the changes in population aging and human capital over time.Finally,the impact of population ageing on economic growth is examined empirically.Using panel data for 30 provincial administrative units in China from 2003 to 2020,this paper constructs a fixed effects model to provide empirical evidence showing that population aging significantly hampers economic growth and that a 1 unit increase in aging is associated with a 0.87 percentage point decline in economic growth.The data collected is divided into three main regions: East,Central and West,depending on the level of local economic development.The regression results by region show that population ageing is a drag on economic growth,but the magnitude of this effect is not the same in each region.In the Eastern region,the drag on economic growth from population ageing is slightly lower than the overall national level;in the Western region,the drag on economic growth from population ageing is much higher than the national average,while in the Central region the effect is not significant.After adding the mediating effect of human capital to the mediation model,the empirical evidence suggests that there is a mediating effect of population ageing on economic growth and that population ageing has a negative effect on economic growth through the mediating path of human capital depreciation.Based on the empirical findings,the following recommendations are made in view of the current situation in China: establish a fertility support system,encourage people to have children through various methods and provide effective education and additional medical care;actively promote the development of the elderly sector based on the real needs of the elderly and ensure that the elderly have a satisfactory life in old age;increase human capital investment based on the human capital intermediation path and promote the development of quality education and innovative diversified education.Promote the development of high-quality education and the introduction of innovative diversified learning methods to meet the learning needs of different population groups.