Font Size: a A A

China's Aging Population Impact On Economic Growth

Posted on:2015-03-15Degree:MasterType:Thesis
Country:ChinaCandidate:C S GuanFull Text:PDF
GTID:2267330428957745Subject:Western economics
Abstract/Summary:PDF Full Text Request
With population growth and changing demographics, population aging has become animportant factor of economic growth. China, as a country with the world’s largestpopulation, population aging will impact the economy more apparent. So it is necessary toresearch impact of economic growth by the aging population growth.Firstly, the domestic and foreign scholars’ research about the impact of populationaging on the economic growth are reviewed. Then on this basis, the writer adds a variablefactors, the elderly dependency ratio and the proportion of the elderly population of thetotal population, to the traditional model of economic growth. By analyzing the results, theaging population and economic growth is negatively correlated to some extent hinderedeconomic growth.Subsequently, the writer establishes an econometric model of population aging on theimpact of economic growth on the basis of the previous theoretical model. In dealing withthe demographic structure of missing data in some years, unlike the usual method, theLeslie model is used to speculate the data of the missing years in this paper, making thispaper more scientific and accuracy. After, the writer use these time-series data and VECmodel to analysis dynamically impact of economic growth by population aging in thelong-term. Unlike the past research, data and models used by the writer reflect the impactof population aging on economic growth in the long run more accurately and is moresuitable for our country situation. The empirical results of this paper and the conclusions ofthe qualitative analysis proves that China’s aging population has hindered economic growth,while economic growth is also affected by other factors, such as savings rates and humancapital factors.On this basis, the paper analysis the way of population aging impacting the economicgrowth from two aspects which are the savings and human capital.By studying empiricallyand theoretically, in the long run, China’s aging population t is negatively correlated tosavings and human capital. Then, it is explained the way that the aging of the populationaffected the economic growth by decline in gross savings rate and human capital.Finally, it is showed in this paper that the policy recommendations helps to reduce theimpact of economic growth by aging population in the short and long term.
Keywords/Search Tags:Population aging factors, Economic Growth, VEC model, Savings rate, Human Capital
PDF Full Text Request
Related items