The Effect Of New Talent Policy On Housing Price ——A Study Of Policy Tool Effect Based On Multi-phase DID Model

As our country enters the new economic normal,the economic development mode has undergone profound changes,and human capital has become an important driving force for economic transformation and innovative development.In March 2016,the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China proposed to implement a more active,open and effective talent introduction policy.Since 2017,aiming at attracting,retaining and gathering talents,local governments have promulgated the New Talent Policy.Various policy tools make a relationship with the real estate market elements,which has had a greater impact on the real estate market.With the country’s requirements of promoting the stable and healthy development of the real estate market,studying the impact of the New Talent Policy on the real estate market is particularly important for local governments to coordinate the New Talent Policy and real estate control policies,and may have an important practical significance for maintaining the stable and healthy development of the real estate market.Firstly,this article defines the concept of the New Talent Policy,and systematically reviews and summarizes the existing research on the influence factors of housing prices and the relationship between the New Talent Policy and housing prices.Through literature review,the three aspects of the mechanism of the impact of the New Talent Policy on housing prices are proposed.Then,based on the 60-period monthly macro data and the micro data of the China Migrants Dynamic Survey（CMDS）of 70 cities from January 2015 to December 2019,this article studies the effect of the New Talent Policies on the real estate price using the multi-period DID model.It also analyzes the heterogeneity of policy tools,housing attributes,city levels,and time length in detail.Also,this article pays attention to the mechanism of talent and population,innovation effect and price expectation on the impact of the New Talent Policy on housing prices,and parallel trend test,PSM-DID,placebo test and others are used for robustness test.The main conclusions drawn from the research are as follows:Firstly,the New Talent Policy and six types of policy tools（settlement policy,house purchase preferential treatment,rental assistance,living allowance,entrepreneurial support,and social welfare）play a significant role in promoting housing prices.Among the policy tools,the settlement policy and rental assistance have the most significant promoting effects,while the combination of non-housing-related policy tools has an even greater effect than the other combination.Second,the housing price in the first-tier cities（including the new first-tier cities）is not affected by the New Talent Policy,while only the newly built housing price in the second-tier cities is affected.And the new and second-hand housing prices in the third and fourth tier are both significantly positively affected.When it comes to the effect of policy tools,social welfare has an impact on housing prices in various cities.New first-tier cities are also affected by house purchases,and second-tier cities are also affected by settlement policies and living allowances.Third-tier and fourth-tier cities are affected by all policy tools,except for living allowances.Thirdly,the price of housing above 144 square meters is most significantly affected by the policy,and new houses with an area of less than 99 square meters are also affected.The relatively short-term effect of the New Talent Policy on housing prices is significantly stronger than relatively the long-term.Finally,the mediation effect of the new talent policy on the introduction of labor（especially talents）is significant,boosting the impact of the new talent policy on the housing price.The expected effect of housing prices also produced a positive intermediary effect.The mechanism effect of innovation spillover effects is significant,and there are differences among city at different levels.High-level innovation mechanisms are significant for all cities,while low-level innovation mechanisms are only effective in second-tier cities.