Study On Population Spatial Structure Of Silk Road Economic Belt (Domestic Section)

"The Silk Road Economic Belt" is a new expression of the development strategy of opening to the west country, it is the deepening and extension of the Great Western Development Policy. In the occasion of the new urbanization construction, driving by the national strategy of opening up to the Western, along with industrialization, urbanization and modernization, the increasing and aggregation of population has become an inevitable trend of the Silk Road Economic Belt. The research of silk road in domestic and foreign was focuses on the construction of Eurasian transportation line, as well as the Eurasian economic, the cultural exchanges, the tourism development, geopolitical relations, ecology, archaeology, etc., the studies on the spatial structure of population in silk road was not enough. The deficiency of the research of population spatial structure will misleading the formation of policy, and caused a result that only pay attention to the control of quantity but neglect the structure and spatial rational allocation of population. The research area faces the restriction of water resource, desertification and other environmental constraints. The large scale reclamation activities by human in the ancient period had made its ecological deteriorating. And the urbanization and the construction of economic belt are influencing it’s industrial layout and population special structure variously. It is likely to lead to serious mistakes in management and decision-making if we ignore or do not know the spatial distribution characteristics of the population, and causing large losses to the national economy development and people’s life level. Therefore, governments and the relevant departments need to understand the status and the future trend of the spatial structure of the population of the Silk Road Economic Belt.The third chapter analyzes the changed process of population spatial structure of the ancient silk road. By the methods of literature research, specialization of population census data and summarized analysis etc., to study the spatial distribution pattern of population of the ancient Silk Road in the six historical period of the dynasties of Han, Tang, Song, Yuan, Ming, Qing, and tries to find the influence factors of the change of population distribution, and the relationship between population distribution and economic growth along the ancient Silk Road, as well as to understand the conditions of population distribution which was necessarily to guarantee the prosperity of the ancient silk road. The study found that the population distribution was after parting for several times in the political cycle of contraction and expansion in seesaw type at the northwest frontier along the ancient Silk Road, as well as the composition of the population was always changing. The productivity and culture was prosperous in the Tang Dynasty, Business travels was extending along the Silk Road, and the Chang-an city which was the starting point city, was the most populous metropolis in the world. But the status of Chang-an city and the Silk Road was declined rapidly, and the ecological environment of population was became worsening because of the factors that the continuous of the outbreak of the war at the late Tang Dynasty, the Western regime was separated by several countries, the climate change to arid, the political and economic center moved to the south of the county, as well as the rise of the transportation by sea. The characteristic of the population spatial structure in period of thriving and prosperous of the Silk Road were:the starting point city had dense population, The population spatial distribution continuously along the Silk Road, and the productivity and culture of the silk road was advanced and opening, and the characteristics in depression period of the Silk Road were in the opposite. The Silk Road Economic Belt is now in a critical period of development that the political environment and economic order were stability in both of the domestic and international, "history as a mirror", we should pay attention to construct the large Xi’an, promote population aggregation, open to the west fully,加快 traffic construction during the construction in the economic zone, and to protect environment and restore ecological by rely on the means of scientific and technological.The fourth chapter analyzes the status of population spatial structure and the existence problems of The Silk Road Economic Belt. Based on the census data of China in 2010and the latest land use data, using the method of gridding of population data, the distribution of the population grid density map of the research area was drawled. To summarize and comparison the spatial structure characteristics of the population between provincial and regional. By using the method of factor analysis, the variables of space structure of population was subtractive in order to reduce the information redundancy and multi-collinearity; by using the method of cluster analysis to clust research area to six population district. The study found out that the dense population area in 2010 of the Silk Road was concentrated in Xi-an city and Guanzhong Prefecture in Shaanxi Province, Hexi Corridor, middle and southeast of Gansu Province, Xi-ning City and Haidong Prefecture in Qinghai Province, Yinchuan plain in Ningxia Province, Yining plain, South and North Slope of Tianshan, oasis zone edge of Tarim basin in Xinjiang Province. The population grid density reflected the limited and difference of population carrying capacity of each regional in the economic belt of the Silk Road, and the presence of the difference pattern is objectivity and stability and will continuously for long-term. The features of population attribute distribution is significant and the spatial differentiation of social groups is large in the Silk Road Economic Belt.The stage of development of population was various different between regions and provinces, the population reproduction in Shaanxi and Gansu was at the "three low" type so that the aging was gradually increasing; while the population reproduction type was still in the "high-low-high" stage in the provinces as Qinghai, Ningxia and Xinjiang, so that the age structure of population is young; The high-quality human capital was accumulated in Xi’an and the other provincial capitals, as well as the higher proportion of immigrant and service sector population; The population which were in the Energy and chemical base in Northern Shaanxi, and was in the metallogenic belt at the junction of Gansu, Qinghai and Xinjiang, have a higher proportion in the second industry, and a highest per capita income, and its sex ratio is relatively high. The regions of large population pressure is mainly distribute in the three regions of southern Xinjiang (the area of Kashi, Hotan, and Kizilsu Kirgiz Autonomous Prefecture), and Yushu, Guoluo state which was in the southern of Qinghai Province, which have a lower average education years and lower per capita income, as well as a higher birth rate and natural growth rate; By using the method of factor analysis, the 25 population attribute index was deducted to six principal components, which was named as "age structure factor", "family scale factor", "health factor", "national factor", "education factor", "income and city factor", etc.. The cluster analysis was performed on the 360 districts based on the result of factor analysis, the research area was gathered as six big population division which was named as:"rapid growth population & poverty agricultural area", "soil erosion type population migration & agricultural District", " rapid growth population & Development Agricultural Zone", "aging & comprehensive development area", "hobo gathering & high income resource area", "major bearing area of population urbanization ", provides the basis for the space structure of population planning such as prediction and optimization.The fifth chapter study on the dynamic mechanism of the changing of population spatial structure in the Silk Road Economic Belt. The family decision-making process of population spatial structure was analyzed by marginal theory, the dynamic mechanism of population urbanization and its effect on the urban and rural economic development was analyzed.to consider the factors that impact on the spatial structure of the population such as New-type urbanization, road construction, Internet trade and new logistics, international metropolis construction, reform of the relevant systems, as well as the resources and environmental constraints, etc. By using a mathematical, the dynamic mechanism of population spatial structure model was expressed. The study found that the spatial pattern of economic factors is more significant regression coefficients with the spatial structure of the population in the Silk Road Economic Belt. Economic laws play a role to the changing of population spatial structure through effects on population natural change (natural birth rate, mortality rate and the population growth rate that was determined by the difference of speeds) and mechanical changes of population (currently mainly point to the population urbanization); population urbanization will promote population growth, employment increase, technical progress and market expansion, as well as to promote the labor to reduce, per capita income increase and agricultural technology progress in rural areas. The important factors of population spatial structure mainly was:the New-type Urbanization and Internet trade promotes the urbanization of population and stabilize the ladder of population density; the traffic infrastructure construction will reduce the costs of population spatial displacement, that to promote population aggregation as the shape of point and shaft; The metropolitan city construction will promote accelerate aggregation of population to the Xi’an or other regional mega cities; system reform will gradually reduce the "weight" of the migration and mobility of population, promote population agglomerated to urban; The resources and environment was the constraint conditions of the changing of population spatial structure; based on the above analysis, the mathematical formula of changing of population spatial structure was expressedThe sixth chapter forecast on the near and long-term population spatial structure evolution trend in the Silk Road Economic Belt. Using the method of population dynamic grey prediction, predict the space structure of population, and the evaluation of economic efficiency and suggestions of optimization were given. The study found that during 2010-2020, the population along the Silk Road Economy Belt will growth rapidly, the population rapid growth region were mainly in the large and medium-sized cities, the hot spots of economic of resources-industrial type, as well as the minority area in the Province of Xinjiang and Qinghai; 2020-2030 years, people inflection point has occurred in most districts of Shaanxi, Gansu Province, the population reproduction is still in the stage of inertia growth in most of the regions in the Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous district; the population aggregation makes the population density in the central district increasing fast in the large and medium-sized city, so that the spatial of the cities will expand.2030-2040 years, the mainstream of population migration is still agricultural areas to towns and cities,as well as small towns population gathered to the big cities, but the total number of the migration will slightly lower than 2020-2030; the aging of population is very serious and the scale of population will continuously decrease in Shaanxi and Gansu Province; the provinces of Ningxia, Qinghai, and Xinjiang will become the main population migration area; "suburbanization" phenomenon will be widespread in big cities.2040-2050 years, the population Urbanization process will be basically realized in the Silk Road Economic Belt, the majority of the population will live in the cities, population density will be very high, the scale of rural population shift to the city is very small, the boundaries between urban and rural areas will be fuzzy, because of the aging and the population density is too large, city living environment will be relatively worse, the resident population of some big cities migration to small towns or rural origin, phenomenon such as "life regression", "suburbanization" and "inverse city" appeared timely in big cities. The basic form of the population grid density distribution map in 2050 is similar with 2010, but the population density is increasing substantially in major and medium cities that formed obviously the bead like population spatial distribution; Taking Xi’an international metropolis as the starting point, the population distribution along the Silk Road (mainly the railway of the Longhai, Lanxin, North Xinjiang, South Xinjiang) has the obvious characteristics of the shape of point and axis. The cities which have a rapidly growth of population mainly in the regional center cities, such as Xi’an, Xianyang, Baoji, Yulin, Ya’nan, Lanzhou, Wuwei, Jinchang, Zhangye, Jiuquan, Xi’ning, Jiayuguan, Golmud, Yinchuan, WuZhong, Shizuishan, Urumqi, Shihezi, Changji, Karamay, Kuitun, Yi’ning, Korla, KashiEtc.The population density of the cities of Mangya,Ruoqiang, HamiEtc., which was low in 2010,will growth rapidly due to Railway of the south Xinjiang, the new railway lines will also drives the three regions of southern Xinjiang (the area of Kashi, Hotan, and Kizilsu Kirgiz Autonomous Prefecture) began to evacuate the migration which have the dense labor population. Because of the fewer children, ageing and urbanization, the scale of population tend to decrease in small towns surrounding the big and medium-sized cities in the provinces of Shaanxi, Gansu, and Ningxia, the and distribution will be aggregation, while the population density in the rural areas will reduce.Research suggests that the special structure of population should adapt to the population site conditions such as the natural and economic. When the spatial structure does not adapt to the site condition of population, the government should optimize the space structure of population through adjusting the distribution of productive forces, increase the convenience of migration, etc. Research proposed that the growth poles should be developed in the Silk Road Economic Belt, the infrastructure construction in large and medium-sized cities should be speed up, the industrial layout should be optimization, the construction of rural public infrastructure and the provision of public services should be increased, the construction of railway and highway should accelerate in the rapid growth area of population, the imbalance of population structure should be solved through the population migration and the reproductive science simultaneously, etc.. The suggestions help to optimize the population density and population structure with the productivity layout, rely on market rules to promote the goal of optimization of population spatial structure and efficiency of economic under a small social cost. The other important role of government is to avoid the market failure such as publican the information, solving the asymmetric information, preventing the moral hazard, etc. When the disorder situation happening such as the cities are overwhelmed, the temporarily policies can be used in a short period, such as increase the threshold of access in large city or regulating the household registration etc. to adapt the special structure of population, but its distortion of market and the social cost is too large; in the long-term, the scientific and continually way to optimize the population spatial structure should be to build a market system and the distribution of productive forces.