| The age structure of the number of people in a family is one of the important indicators to reflect the regional the number of people in a family structure.The current age structure of the population in my country shows a trend of increasing elderly population and decreasing population of children and teenagers.The change in the age structure of the population will have an impact on my country’s economic development,and tourism,as a new pillar industry in my country,will inevitably be affected.In the article "The Fourteenth Five-Year Plan and 2035 Long-Term Proposals," the central government proposed to adopt a positive attitude towards population aging and vigorously develop culture,tourism and other service industries.In this context,it is meaningful to analyze the impact of population age changes on the domestic tourism industry.Through the description,classification and summary of the relevant literature at home and abroad,this article uses the demographic transition theory,life cycle theory and other relevant theoretical knowledge to analyze the impact of the proportion of the population at different ages on my country’s tourism industry.Combined with my country’s population policy and Arc GIS software,the historical changes and current status of my country’s population age structure and domestic tourism are analyzed.Establish a VAR model by collecting time series data at the national level from 2000 to2019,analyze the impact of population age structure on the development of the domestic tourism industry,and conduct impulse response and variance decomposition of the specific degree of impact.then 31 provinces were collected from 2000 to 2019 Based on the panel data of the country,add population age structure related variables to the consumption model,establish fixed-effect models for the whole country,central and western regions based on the results of F-test and Hausman test,and establish random-effects models for the eastern region,from the national and regional levels.Empirical analysis of the impact of population age structure changes on the development of domestic tourism.Finally,summarize the main conclusions of this paper,and put forward corresponding countermeasures and suggestions.Based on the research,this paper draws the following conclusions: First,from the national and regional level,when the proportion of the elderly increases,it has a significant promoting effect on the development of domestic tourism,which is consistent with the expectation of the life cycle theory.Second,the increase of the proportion of children has a positive impact on domestic tourism,but has no significant impact on the eastern region.Third,per capita disposable income has a significant role in promoting tourism consumption in different regions. |
