Influence Of Fertility Policy Adjustment On Labor Supply And Demand In Anhui Province

Since the reform and opening up,the rate of decline in the birth rate and natural growth rate of China population has increased.Anhui Province has a birth rate basically the same as the national average.After the implementation of the “Comprehensive Two-Child” policy,Anhui Province’s willingness to give birth has increased significantly,and the fertility level has increased significantly.However,the fertility rate has been on a downward trend since2018.The “Comprehensive Two-Child” policy has weakened the stimulus to the fertility rate,and the fertility rate has decreased.The recent demographic changes are undoubtedly a major impact on labor supply,and the total labor supply and its structure have an impact on social and economic development.Therefore,in order to increase the fertility rate,the readjustment of the fertility policy has become a hot issue for Chinese experts and scholars.Based on the analysis of the current status of labor supply in Anhui Province,this paper uses a population forecast model,combined with the labor participation rate in Anhui Province and the labor substitution rate in the context of "artificial intelligence",and explores the unchanged and full liberalization of the "comprehensive two-child" policy.The relationship between future labor supply and demand in Anhui Province under these two birth policies.The data used in the forecast is calculated based on the data of the population sample survey.Predictive parameters such as total fertility rate,average life expectancy,and sex ratio at birth are derived from the "Anhui Provincial Statistical Yearbook" and "Statistical Bulletin of National Economic and Social Development" over the years.The forecast method is the cohort element method,and the forecast time is set to end in 2050.The forecast plan sets three forecast plans according to different fertility levels,namely low plan,medium plan,and high plan.Assuming the low plan: the future fertility policy will remain unchanged,the fertility level in Anhui Province will be the same as the current fertility level in 2050,and the total fertility rate will remain at 1.66;the medium plan: the future fertility policy will be further liberalized,people will increase their willingness to give birth,and the total fertility rate will remain unchanged.Linear increase,and reach 1.8 in 2050;high plan: future fertility policies will be further liberalized,people’s willingness to have children will be fully stimulated,the total fertility rate will rise linearly,and will reach the 2.0 replacement level in 2050.At the same time,the data model is used to predict the labor demand in Anhui Province from 2020 to 2050,combined with the labor substitution rate under the background of "artificial intelligence",to obtain the preliminary results of the labor demand forecast in Anhui Province,and finally to integrate the labor supply forecast and labor demand forecast results in Anhui Province.Analyze the gap between labor supply and demand in Anhui Province.The specific research results are as follows:(1)Even if the fertility policy is further liberalized,the future downward trend of labor supply in Anhui Province will not be changed;(2)Further liberalization of the fertility policy can alleviate the decline in the labor supply in Anhui Province;(3)Further fertility policy Liberalization can change the labor supply structure of Anhui Province;(4)Anhui Province will be in a long-term labor shortage situation during 2020-2050.Finally,based on the above research conclusions,this article puts forward the following suggestions.They are:(1)Actively respond to the implementation of fertility policies,formulate and improve relevant fertility measures;(2)improve nursery and childcare Service system to alleviate family-raising conflicts;(3)Promote the high-quality development of education and comprehensively cultivate high-skilled and high-quality talents;(4)Launch a comprehensive security plan to attract talents from college students;(5)Increase the labor participation rate of the elderly,To extend the legal retirement age;(6)Fully liberalize birth restrictions and further liberalize the birth policy;(7)Focus on the background of artificial intelligence and improve relevant policies and measures.