Research On China’s Labor Supply Under Three-Child Policy

Based on the data of the 7th National population census in 2020,combined with the relevant information in the statistical data yearbook over the years,this paper constructs the prediction model of the total fertility rate,introduces the relevant estimation indicators,and formulates a variety of fertility programs to predict the trend of the total fertility rate under different three-child fertility levels from 2022 to2050.According to this trend,the number of working-age population in 2022-2050 under the three-child policy is estimated by using Cohort-Component Method and Age-Moving Method,combined with the estimated values of the overall fertility level in different situations.This paper constructs the Bras related labor force participation rate model,predicts the changing trend of employment participation rate of different age groups and makes rational assumptions.Considering the labor force participation rate of different age groups,by analyzing the changes in the scale and internal structure of labor supply after the implementation of the three-child policy,we can determine the impact of the policy on China’s labor supply from 2022 to 2050.The results show that: The three-child policy would not change the pattern of negative labor supply growth in the future.But such a policy could slow the decline in labor supply.The newly born population can make up for the gap,in order to alleviate the reduction of the labor supply,increase the total number of young labor force in the future,and reduce the proportion of the elderly employment group,which greatly optimized the age structure of the domestic employment group.On the basis forecast results,the following recommendations are made: full liberalization of fertility policies;In the meantime,strengthen monitoring of fertility levels,willingness,and effects of policy implementation,and establish mechanisms for population monitoring and early warning;Accelerate the construction of public childcare institutions and reduce the cost of personal childcare;Accelerate the exploration and implementation of "socialization of birth costs" through fiscal and taxation arrangements;Accelerate the introduction of delayed retirement policies;Promoting education advancement,scientific and technological advancement to improve "population quality";Increase input in human resources to effectively alleviate structural unemployment and partial and overall labor shortages.