Study On The Propagation And Simulation Of Public Opinion Rumors In Mass Emergencies Based On SEIR Model

With the rapid development of Internet technology represented by "5G",cyberspace has increasingly become an important place for the development and diffusion of public opinions.After the spread of the public,mass emergencies in reality will quickly form a powerful online public opinion.How to better govern the spread of public opinion and rumors about mass emergencies is a new problem facing the government.The rumour spread of mass emergencies under the background of network public opinion has become one of the major hidden dangers affecting social harmony and public satisfaction.However,in the current network environment,it is dificult to trace the source of public opinion and rumors,and in most cases,it is difficult to hold the rumor-mongers accountable.In this case,it is particularly important to deeply analyze the difference and particularity between network public opinion and traditional public opinion,and then explore the rules of the formation,transmission and evolution of public opinion rumors.Based on the SEIR model,this paper uses the multi-agent modeling method and Netlogo simulation software to conduct the initial simulation of the real data of "Jiangsu Xiangshui Chemical Plant Explosive" event,and then adjusts the three key impact factors to conduct the secondary simulation.The results of the two simulations are compared and found that,The simulation after adjusting the influence factors can effectively control the spread of public opinion and rumors.The main work of this paper includes:(1)A public opinion rumor propagation model of mass emergencies is constructed,and the influence factors of the model are analyzed experimentally by using Netlogo software.The results show that "total number of participants","number of rumor sources" and "public activity" have a greater impact on the spread of public opinion rumors.(2)Taking "Jiangsu Xiangshui Chemical Plant Exploding Event" as a case study,the simulation parameters of real data were obtained by pre-experiment at first,and then the three key influencing factors were adjusted for secondary simulation.The simulation results showed that the control of rumor source" could effectively slow down the propagation speed;Reducing the "total number of participants" can effectively reduce the transmission trend;Reducing the "level of activity" can effectively slow the spread.This shows that it is feasible to prevent and control the spread of public opinion and rumors in mass emergencies.(3)Based on the simulation results,three measures for the government to deal with the spread of rumors in emergencies are proposed:perfecting the construction of the legal system of public opinion rumors in mass emergencies;Advocate the establishment of public opinion rumors early warning mechanism for mass emergencies;We will improve the handling level of public opinion in mass emergencies and make the spread of public opinion rumors in mass emergencies develop in a positive and controllable direction.This paper presents the simulation process of public opinion and rumor propagation in mass emergency events.Through the simulation experiment of "Jiangsu Xiangshui Chemical Plant Explosion",it is found that "total number of participants","number of rumor sources"and "public activity" have a significant impact on the process of public opinion and rumor propagation.It provides a theoretical basis and reference value for the control of public opinions and rumors in mass emergencies in China.