Research On Network Public Opinion Information Diffusion Mechanism And Guidance Strategy Under Public Health Emergencies

Public health emergencies are related to the life safety of the people all over the country,have attracted extensive attention from the people,and have aroused heated discussion on the network platform.Public opinion information on such topics will cause some problems in the dissemination process,such as frequent extreme remarks,widespread rumors and so on.This will not only disrupt the normal network order,but also hinder the promotion of response to public health emergencies.In order to better solve the problems existing in the evolution of network public opinion under public health emergencies,it is necessary to deeply study the formation mechanism of group opinion polarization,rumor evolution mechanism and rumor control strategy.Based on this,this thesis first models and simulates the official information dissemination mechanism and the formation mechanism of group opinion polarization,then models the rumor evolution mechanism,and compares and analyzes the rumor control strategies.The specific contents are as follows:(1)Research on the mechanism of official information dissemination and group opinion polarization formation.Firstly,by introducing individual heterogeneity factors,the infectious disease model and viewpoint dynamics model are improved,and the improved infectious disease model and viewpoint dynamics model are combined to establish SEIR-JA model integrating public opinion polarization and dissemination process,so as to study the formation mechanism of public opinion dissemination and public opinion polarization.Then,the evolution process of public opinion is simulated through simulation experiments,and the impact on the evolution process of public opinion is analyzed from three aspects:communication parameters,polarization parameters and network structure.Finally,the rationality and effectiveness of SEIR-OM model are verified by an actual case during COVID-19.(2)Research on modeling of rumor evolution mechanism and its control strategy.Firstly,the individual heterogeneity factors are integrated into SEIR model,and the state transition mode is designed.Secondly,the decision-making behavior of individuals in the process of rumor formation and dissemination is considered,and the information interaction mode between individuals is designed.Then,the SEIR-OM model is established by fusing the individual state transition mode and individual information interaction mode,and the rumor control strategy is simulated and analyzed.Finally,the rationality and effectiveness of SEIROM model are verified by an actual case during COVID-19.The main conclusions of this thesis are as follows:(1)The proportion of communication individuals at the initial time only affects the dissemination speed of network public opinion,but does not affect the peak value of the number of silent individuals and communication individuals.In addition,the proportion of communication individuals at the initial moment has a significant impact on the formation of polarization in the early stage of the evolution of public opinion.(2)At the early stage of the evolution of public opinion,the effect of individual conservative degree on the public opinion polarization is greater than the effect of conformity;with the deepening of the interaction of opinions,the influence of individual conformity on the public opinion polarization is gradually appearing.At the last stage of the evolution of public opinion,both individual conformity and individual conservatism play a significant role in the public opinion polarization.(3)Different network structures will affect the process of public opinion polarization.In BA network and ER network,the polarization effect of public opinion is similar.Due to the lack of connections between individuals far away from each other in WS network,the polarization effect in WS network is not as good as that in BA network and ER network.This indicates that the average distance between individuals will affect the process of public opinion polarization.(4)Before the occurrence of the public health emergencies,the knowledge popularization strategy and penalty constraint strategy for the public can effectively reduce the overall deviation of information content and the spread range of rumors in the network after the public opinion affairs.In addition,the rumor control effect of penalty constraint strategy is better than that of knowledge popularization strategy,but its inhibitory effect on network activity is also much greater than that of knowledge popularization strategy.(5)After the occurrence of public health emergencies,the government should take rumor refutation strategies as soon as possible to minimize the impact of rumor.In addition,when adopting the rumor refutation strategy,the government should pay more attention to the number of rumor refuting individuals.