| Since the 1970 s,the problem of population shrinkage in most western cities has gradually attracted the attention of scholars.The population distribution among different regions in my country is extremely uneven,and the problem of population shrinkage at different regional scales is prominent,which seriously hinders the sustainable development of the region.The regional distribution of population in Inner Mongolia varies significantly,especially in recent years.Therefore,clarifying the situation and development trend of population shrinkage in Inner Mongolia plays a vital role in its economic development.This paper first analyzes the population change and age structure change from the scale of the league and city,and analyzes the population migration from the perspective of population migration by obtaining population migration data.Taking the merged 89 banner counties and districts of Inner Mongolia as the research unit,the population shrinkage areas in the county area during the two periods of 2000-2010 and 2010-2020 were identified with the help of the resident population rate in the fifth,sixth and seventh census data.,using the spatial autocorrelation method to analyze the spatial distribution pattern of population shrinkage,and analyze the changes in the proportion of different age structures and population shrinkage.Then,the relevant socio-economic and physical geographic data were downloaded from various websites,and then the main factors affecting population shrinkage in the two periods were quantitatively screened using geographic detectors and geographic weighted regression models,and the spatial heterogeneity of the effects of each factor was analyzed.Finally try to give relevant advice.The main conclusions of this paper are as follows:（1）From 2000 to 2020,the population of Hohhot,Baotou,and Ordos increased significantly,and the population inflow was significant;the population of Xilingol League,Wuhai and Alxa League showed a small increase.The population of Hulunbuir City,Xing an League,Tongliao City,Chifeng City,Ulanqab City,and Bayannaoer City decreased.Among them,the population of Hulunbuir and Ulanqab City decreased significantly,and the population outflow was serious.From the perspective of the proportion of age structure,the relationship between changes in the proportion of children and the total population is lower than the relationship between changes in the proportion of the working population and the proportion of the elderly and changes in the total population.The decrease in the working population and the increase in the proportion of the elderly population are important manifestations of the population decrease.（2）From 2000 to 2010,the population of more than half of the counties in Inner Mongolia shrank,mainly distributed in the qixian districts in the central and eastern part of Inner Mongolia,showing a local concentrated and contiguous distribution,among which the population shrinkage in the qixian districts in Hulunbuir City was more serious.From 2010 to 2020,more than two-thirds of the population of Qixian districts faced the problem of population shrinkage,and the population shrinkage in the central and eastern parts of Inner Mongolia was intensified.Among them,Hulunbuir and Ulanqab had the most serious population shrinkage.In the two periods,the problem of continuous population shrinkage was prominent,the problem of population shrinkage was aggravated,and there were very few counties and districts that turned from shrinkage to growth,indicating that the population return was not obvious.Secondly,the relationship between population shrinkage and age structure changes at the county level is: the change in the proportion of children in the population has no significant correlation with population shrinkage,while the decrease in the proportion of the working population and the increase in the proportion of the elderly population are positively correlated with population shrinkage,indicating that labor outflow and aging Aggravation is an important manifestation of population shrinkage.Using spatial autocorrelation to analyze the spatial distribution characteristics of population shrinking areas,it is concluded that the population shrinking areas presented random distribution from 2000 to2010.（3）Through software calculation,it is concluded that the factors affecting population shrinkage in the two periods are mainly dominated by social and economic development factors.From 2000 to 2010,the influencing factors that passed the significance test with the help of geographic detectors were GDP per land,total retail sales of consumer goods,local fiscal revenue,per capita number of medical and health beds,average annual temperature,and distance to the nearest prefecture-level administrative center.Among the main factors affecting population shrinkage during the period from 2010 to 2020,economic factors and natural environment factors did not change.With the increase of employment pressure,the factors affecting the proportion of nonagricultural employment increased;the degree of transportation convenience increased,from the previous period to the latest.The distance from the administrative center of the prefecture-level city was changed to the distance to the provincial administrative center during this period.Geographically weighted regression analysis was carried out through Arc GIS 10.6,and the analysis showed that the spatial heterogeneity of each influencing factor was strong,and the overall effect of each influencing factor was stronger in eastern Inner Mongolia. |
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