Age Structure,Population Migration And Economic Growth In Northeast China

Since reform and opening up,economic growth in Northeast China has been relatively slow,which has even been at the bottom of the whole nation continuously especially since 2012,appearing to be "a cliff-like drop".Meanwhile,population situation in Northeast China has changed dramatically:on the one hand,age structure in northeast area is shifting sharply,the speed of aging is far faster than the national average level and fertility rate is extremely low,which shows the feature of "few kids";on the other hand,population loss in Northeast China is scaling up and accelerating,and the proportion of northeast population in the whole nation dropped rapidly.Under this background,for understanding the causes of weak economic growth in Northeast China and promoting the sustainable development of regional economy,it is of both theoretical and practical significance to discuss the current status and development trend of age structure and population migration,and analyze the mutual mechanism between demographic factors and economic growth in Northeast China.By reviewing literatures about causes of economic decline in Northeast China,we find that former scholars usually attributes the slow economic growth to aspects of institution,industrial structure and so on,however,the impact of demographic factors on local economy is easily neglected.In the context of striking change in age structure and population loss,we can't explain causes of economic decline in Northeast China accurately if ignoring the above factors.Therefore,this dissertation focuses on the influence of population age structure and population migration on the economic growth in Northeast china.Base on analyses on the changes of demographic factors and economic factors in Northeast China,the extended Solow model is built,into which variables of age structure and net out-migration are introduced,and the capital per capita and output per capita on the balance growth path are derived.We find that both age structure and population migration have impact on the speed of output per capita.This dissertation empirically estimates the impacts of age structure,population migration on economic growth by using panel data of 40 prefecture-level cities.The major conclusions include:?Net out-migration with the changing of "hukou" and net out-mobility without the changing of "hukou" both have significant negative impact on the economic growth in Northeast China.Compared to the net out-mobility without the changing of "hukou",net out-migration with the changing of "hukou" will exert lager negative effects on economic growth.?Age structure is highly correlated to economic growth in northeast area.Different age groups exert different influences on economic growth,and the population of 35-44 makes the greatest contribution to economic growth.Excessive dependency ratio of population weakens the power of economic growth,but the effects are slightly different in areas with different levels of economic development.?Econometric analyses on other economic variables illustrate that investment rate and labor force participation rate do not have significantly positive effects on economy in northeast area as expected.Economic growth in Northeast China has high inertia,and presents regional growth convergence.?Economic growth also exerts some impacts on population migration and mobility conversely.High level of economic development and economic openness contribute to in-migration.Backward industrial structure and High investment rate hinder in-migration significantly.Based on the results of empirical analysis,this dissertation puts forwards the following policy suggestions:?Northeast China should cope with population aging timely,scientifically and comprehensively,increase fertility rate properly,postpone retirement and develop aging human resource,promote full employment as well.?Northeast China should remedy the situation of population loss,relax "hukou"restrictions to attract immigrants,adjust economic structure and enhance the attraction of employment.