Multi-subject Modeling And Simulation Study Of Public Opinion Reversal Events

The emergence of social platforms has lowered the threshold for people to participate in discussions on current affairs,which has led to a surge in the number of public opinions,with more and more people expressing their attitudes toward hot events on social platforms.However,the freedom of online speech also creates conditions for the spread of false public opinion,which takes advantage of netizens’ curiosity and sympathy to ferment,using gimmicky headlines and exaggerated language to cause a major public opinion storm,resulting in the rapid accumulation of negative emotions in the community.When another party breaks the news or the official media reveals the truth,the content of the information before and after the incident on social media platforms does not match,triggering the emergence of a reversal of public opinion.The reversal of public opinion causes a rapid change in the sentiment of netizens,who feel cheated and used,resulting in negative emotions.If such negative emotions are not properly controlled,the credibility of official media will be damaged,resulting in the offline derivation of bad emotions and easy formation of offline violence.This thesis takes the online opinion reversal event as the research background,adopts the multi-subject simulation method,and combines the classical contagion model to study the influence of the attributes of each participating subject in the opinion reversal event.The article firstly compares the development changes and research status of public opinion events,public opinion reversal events,and public opinion evolution models at home and abroad,and discusses the applicability of theoretical concepts related to public opinion reversal,the contagion model,and the multi-subject simulation method to this study.Secondly,the study classifies the reversal events into three categories according to the different participants,namely the PNOL model of "event parties + opinion leaders + common netizens + official media",the PPNL model of "both event parties + opinion leaders + common netizens",and the PPNL model of "both event parties + opinion leaders + common netizens".PPNL model,and PPNOL model of "both parties involved in the incident + opinion leaders + ordinary netizens + official media".Thirdly,according to the classification of public opinion reversal events,this thesis uses the multi-subject simulation method to establish the corresponding simulation models and explores the influence of different scenarios on the evolution of public opinion,such as the choice of official media intervention,intervention nodes,the intervention of opinion leaders and the credibility of the content released by the parties concerned,and the sequence of intervention.Finally,this study selected the 2020 Guangzhou teacher’s alleged corporal punishment of students to validate the PNOL model,confirming that the model is realistic and feasible,and explored the role of official media in the incident using the model.The results show that the intervention of official media will increase the heat of public opinion,increase the evolution time of public opinion,reduce the number of rumor spreaders in the community,increase their authority and intervention enthusiasm will be more beneficial to reduce the difficulty of regulating public opinion in the future,and the participation of opinion leaders will accelerate the dissemination of information about the incident,and the higher the influence,the easier it is to change the tendency of public opinion.Therefore,official media should establish a sound mechanism for handling the reversal of public opinion in their daily work,improve control over the whole process of public opinion development,pay attention to the expression of netizens’ emotions in communities,strengthen cooperation with community opinion leaders,and create a more rational public opinion environment for the public.As opinion leaders,they should reasonably use their high influence in the dissemination of public opinion and improve their news literacy.As the parties involved in the incident,they should enhance the credibility of the published content and respond to the untrue public opinion in the community in time to avoid the negative impact of false public opinion on themselves.Internet users in the community should improve their information recognition ability,maintain rational expression of emotions,respect different opinions in the community,and maintain a good public opinion environment.