Research On Dynamic Risk Management Of Subway Engineering Based On Bayesian Network

Due to its many advantages,such as speed and comfort,the city subway has developed rapidly in and abroad.Along with the large-scale construction of urban subways,safety accidents occur frequently,which not only seriously do harm to the process of construction,but also caused huge loss of life and property.Individual accidents also have adverse social impacts,and safety issues need to be resolved urgently.The urban subway project has the characteristics of long construction period,large investment,strong comprehensiveness,tight construction period and complicated and variable construction environment.In addition,there is insufficient experience in construction management.Therefore,safety accidents during the construction phase are not uncommon.The task of security management is arduous and the pressure is highlighted.The dynamic monitoring of the whole process risk of the subway project is particularly important.This paper takes urban subway construction as the main research object.According to the characteristics of urban subway construction,it focuses on the main problems of the lack of accident data and risk dynamic analysis of current tunnel engineering risk management,and comprehensively adopts theoretical analysis,literature search,data research,and shell.A variety of methods,such as Bayesian network,have carried out a series of studies on the urban subway construction risk assessment methods.The article firstly collects the cases of subway construction accidents in China from 2003 to 2018,and establishes an accident case database,which analyzes the types of accidents,the time of occurrence,the direction of risk sources,and the consequences of accidents.Secondly,the Bayesian network theory is introduced to construct Bayesian network-based dynamic risk rating method for subway construction,in order to more accurately identify the risk and probability of occurrence of risk;finally,based on the construction example of Tianjin Metro Line 10,the subway construction of the Bayesian network proposed in this paper is verified with the effectiveness of the dynamic risk rating method.