Analysis And Prediction Of The Grain Efficiency Of Cultivated Land In Typical Yellow River Irrigation Areas In Henan Province

The efficiency of cultivated land grain is the extent to which the actual production capacity of cultivated land is close to the potential productivity of cultivated land and it is one of the specific manifestations of cultivated land grain production capacity.It can better reveal the utilization status and utilization efficiency of cultivated land,which is an important content in the study of cultivated land at the present stage.As an important grain production area in Henan Province,Dagong Irrigation District plays an important role in ensuring regional food self-sufficiency.However,due to the limited nature of cultivated land resources,the contradiction between the constant or even decreasing amount of cultivated land and the increase in food demand is increasing.How to make full use of the limited Cultivated land resources and increasing food production capacity are particularly important.Therefore,this paper introduces the calculation model of arable land grain efficiency,and analyzes the efficiency of cultivated land grain in Dagong Irrigation District from the perspective of cultivated land production and crop planting conditions,and introduces the concept of normalized vegetation index,and builds the regression of NDVI and grain yield.Based on the verification of the possibility of NDVI inversion of grain yield,the model analyzes the spatial scale changes of the efficiency of farmland grain efficiency in Dagong Irrigation District.It also predicts the efficiency of future arable land in irrigation districts,in order to provide reference for the rational use of cultivated land in typical irrigation districts in Henan Province in the future.Between 2000 and 2015,irrigation districts mainly focused on growing food crops,and other types of crops were planted in smaller areas.The efficiency of irrigated real estate grain is mainly affected by these two crops.However,due to the low degree of arable land development and utilization and the decline of cultivated land quality,the efficiency of irrigated real estate grain has a short-term growth in 16 years,but the increase is not large,and is slightly lower.At the national average.The efficiency of arable land and the main grain yield of Dagong Irrigation District have obvious spatial differentiation,showing a distribution pattern of “intermediate high and low surrounding”.The areas with high efficiency of arable land grain are concentrated in Hua County and Changchun County in the middle of the irrigation area.The areas with low efficiency of arable land are mainly distributed in Neihuang County and Qingfeng County in the north.With the gray-Markov prediction model,the paper predicts the efficiency of the cultivated property grain in the Dagong Irrigation District in the next ten years.The efficiency of the cultivated property grain in the Dagong Irrigation District shows an increasing trend,which is consistent with the forecast results of grain yields.Close to the national average.