A Study On The Characteristics Of Large Population Deaths Caused By Natural Disasters And Wars In The Ming Dynasty

Natural disasters and wars caused a large number of deaths in the population.Historical materials are often recorded as "tens of thousands of dead people","human cannibalism","dead people lying on top of each other".The occurrence of these events seriously affects production Life and social development.The study of the characteristics of the large number of deaths in the Ming Dynasty can provide a reference for the interaction between global change and human activities.The combination of ancient book database retrieval and literature data,statistically sorting out the large number of deaths caused by natural disasters and wars in the Ming Dynasty,using linear change trend analysis,least squares method,Mann-Kendall mutation analysis method,Matlab wavelet period analysis method,Grey correlation degree analysis,regression analysis and other methods are used to study the mass deaths caused by natural disasters and wars.The research shows that:(1)Natural disasters in the Ming Dynasty caused a large number of deaths in the population to occur 206a,with an average of 1.34a once.The Chongzhen Dynasty occurred successively,followed by the Jiajing Dynasty,and the Hongwu Dynasty and Hongxi Dynasty occurred less frequently.Spring is a high-incidence season,which occurs more frequently in summer and autumn,and less frequently in winter,and is concentrated in July,June,and March.Among them,the proportion of drought,flood,hunger,and epidemic is higher,accounting for 70.28%.The frequency and phase characteristics of natural disasters and provinces during the 10a period are obvious.and the frequency of natural disasters is less-rapidly increased-slowly decreased-steadily increased.Provincial changes are characterized by three phases of steady increase-slow decrease-rapid increase.Natural disasters caused a large number of death events in the frequency sequence of the first main cycle of 80a,40a and 20a.The provincial sequence has a first major period of 80a,45a and 10a.The 10a provincial sequence and the 10a frequency sequence show a change from less to more after 1450.Spatially,the spatial concentration of natural disasters is obvious,mainly distributed in the eastern coastal areas and central regions,and the disaster occurrence rates in the northwest and southwest regions are relatively low.The large number of deaths caused by the disaster affected 25 provinces across the country,for a total of 703 provinces,of which Jiangsu,Shandong,and Henan are high-frequency provinces where natural disasters caused large numbers of deaths.(2)A large number of deaths caused by the war in the Ming Dynasty occurred in 103a,with an average of 2.68a.The Chongzhen Dynasty had the highest frequency and scale of war,followed by the Jiajing Dynasty,and the Hongxi Dynasty,Hongzhi Dynasty,and Wanli Dynasty were less frequent.The seasonal distribution is mainly spring and autumn,and it occurs frequently during the season transition period.The frequency of the 10a war and the provinces of the 10a war are generally consistent.In the early Ming Dynasty,it happened less.It was a period of low incidence of war.In the middle and late period of the Ming Dynasty,both showed a fluctuating growth trend,which was a period of high incidence of war.The frequency sequence of mass deaths caused by the war has a first main cycle of 90a,40a and 20a.The provincial sequence has a first major period of 80a,40a and 10a.The mutation analysis showed that the 10a frequency and provincial sequence showed a change from less to more after 1620.Spatially,the Ming Dynasty's war caused a large number of deaths.The regional differentiation characteristics are significant.Shaanxi,Shanxi,Henan,and the middle and lower reaches of the Yellow River are the two high-frequency centers in Shaanxi,Shanxi,Henan,and Zhejiang and Jiangsu.The frequency and scale of wars in Guizhou were also large(3)Contrastive analysis of the impact of the two major factors of natural disasters and wars on mass deaths.In terms of the proportion of deaths,natural disasters accounted for 52.16%and wars accounted for 47.84%.The analysis of the gray correlation degree shows that the correlation between natural disasters and the total number of deaths is large,Natural disasters had the greatest impact on the number of deaths in the Ming Dynasty,followed by war.Among the types of natural disasters,hunger and drought had a greater impact.(4)The provinces with large population deaths caused by natural disasters and wars in the Ming Dynasty have opposite trends to fluctuations in temperature and warmth,and the provinces with large numbers of deaths caused by natural disasters have significant negative correlations with changes in temperature and warmth.The linear equation:y=-1.181x-0.396.When the temperature drops by one unit in the winter half year,the provinces with a large number of deaths caused by natural disasters increases by 1.181 units,and the temperature change in the winter half year can explain 52%of natural disasters Province changes.The provinces with large numbers of deaths caused by natural disasters and wars have opposite trends with changes in dry and wet climates.The provinces with large numbers of deaths caused by natural disasters and changes in dry and wet temperatures have a more significant return.The analysis can get a linear equation:y=-2.29x+0.002,when the wet and dry index drops by one unit,the number of provinces with a large number of deaths caused by natural disasters increases by 2.29 units,and the climate dry and wet index changes Can explain the changes in natural disasters by 20.5%.(5)A comparative analysis of the sequence of changes in the population growth rate and the frequency of mass deaths in the Ming Dynasty.The changes in population growth rates corresponded to the population deaths in the late Ming Dynasty.The lower population growth rates corresponded to natural disasters and wars.Changes in population growth rates and wars have led to more significant deaths.The regression analysis obtained a linear equation:y=-0.199x+4.318.When the population growth rate decreased by one unit,the frequency of mass deaths caused by war increased by 0.199 units.R2=0.17,which represents a change in the population growth rate that can explain the 17%change in the frequency of war.(6)In summary,mass death events are the result of a combination of climate change,population growth changes,and political reasons.However,climate change dominates mass death events.The direct impact of the large number of deaths is the sharp decrease in the population and the increase in immigration,resulting in a decline in the quality of life of the people,it greatly disrupts agricultural production,causes fluctuations in food prices,and severely restricts social and economic development and causes social unrest.