The Effect Of Uncertainty Tolerance On Intertemporal Decision-making

Intertemporal decision making refers to people weighing things at different points in time to make a choice.Studies have found that time perception is a very important factor in intertemporal decision making,and individual intertemporal decision making behavior is obviously affected by time perception.Uncertainty tolerance refers to the individual's perception of uncertainty in everyday life,emotional and behavioral responses,relative to the high uncertainty tolerance of individuals,the tolerance of low uncertainty caused by the result of individual uncertainty about the future worry,anxiety,therefore,to avoid this kind of mood,in the decision,they will tend to choose options in the near future.Studies show that delay discounting in intertemporal decision making is usually a combination of time discounting and uncertainty discounting.Although some studies have confirmed the influence of uncertainty tolerance on intertemporal decision making,few studies have explored the role of time perception in it.Therefore,this study added time perception as a mediating variable to explore the influence of uncertainty tolerance on time perception and intertemporal decision making.There were two experiments in this study.In Experiment 1,36 subjects with high and low uncertainty tolerance were selected from 160 subjects using the Intolerable Uncertainty Scale.2(uncertainty tolerance: high,low)×4(time interval: 2S,4S,6S and 8S),the two groups of subjects were asked to perform time replication tasks respectively.The tolerance of uncertainty was the inter-group variable,the four different time intervals were the intra-group variables,and the dependent variable was the time interval assessment results of the subjects.The effects of tolerance of uncertainty on the short-time assessment were investigated.In Experiment 2,36 subjects with high and low uncertainty tolerance were selected from 158 subjects again.A single-factor interparticipant design was adopted to allow the subjects to perform long-duration evaluation task and intertemporal decision task,respectively.The independent variable is uncertainty tolerance,the dependent variable is time range evaluation result and intertemporal decision delay discount rate.The influence of uncertainty tolerance on long range evaluation and intertemporal decision related to long range evaluation is discussed,and the mediating role of time perception in this process is also discussed.The results are as follows:(1)Tolerance of uncertainty has a significant effect on time perception.Individuals with low uncertainty tolerance tend to overestimate time;Individuals with high uncertainty tolerance tend to underestimate time.(2)Tolerance of uncertainty has a significant effect on intertemporal decision making.Individuals with low tolerance for uncertainty tend to choose small and immediate rewards.Individuals with high uncertainty tolerance tended to choose large and delayed rewards.(3)Time perception is a complete mediator between uncertainty tolerance and intertemporal decision making.In conclusion,the results of the two studies indicate that uncertainty tolerance has an effect on time perception and intertemporal decision making,and the effect of uncertainty tolerance on intertemporal decision making is realized through the mediating effect of time perception.Individuals with low uncertainty tolerance tend to overestimate the time,thus overestimate the benefit cost in the intertemporal decision,so they tend to prefer the near-term option.Facing up to uncertainty and understanding the differences in time perception will help us to make rational decisions.