Risks And Challenges Of The Belt And Road Initiative From The Perspective Of Two-tier Game

This thesis aims to analyze the risks and challenges faced by “Belt and Road”initiative(BRI)and provide policy suggestions.Therefore,this thesis focuses on the implementation progress of BRI large-scale infrastructure projects in “Indo-Pacific region” through the lens of two-level game.BRI is a grand design to integrate both international and domestic situations and achieve regional connectivity.BRI has injected new impetus to world development,which is conducive to overcoming the Middle-Income Trap,the Kindleberger Trap and the Thucydides Trap.Meanwhile,BRI is facing complex risks and challenges on both international level and host country's domestic level.The two-level game theory,put forward by Robert D.Putnam,is an international relations theory that highlights the interaction between the international and domestic levels.This thesis adopts the two-level game theory to construct a dynamic BRI two-level game model,and divides the two-level game into level ? "cooperative alliance" establishment stage and level ? "cooperative consensus" formation stage.This thesis put forward three types of BRI risks and challenges: 1)Great powers intervention,including great powers offering alternative options,intervention in host countries' election and criticizing BRI;2)Change of government,including getting rid of the political heritage of the former government,reconsidering the return of investment of the project and the change of foreign policy;3)Opposition from domestic groups in the host country,including those from political parties,interest groups and public opinion.Then this thesis elaborates risks and challenges faced by BRI through the case analysis of the implementation progress of several large-scale BRI infrastructure projects in "Indo-Pacific region",where the United States,Japan,India and Australia are located.The selected cases include the Colombo Port City Project in Sri Lanka,the Solomon Islands Submarine Optical Cable Project,the East Coast Rail Link Project in Malaysia,and the Myitsone Hydropower Project in Myanmar.In response,this thesis argues that China should take some action in the following three aspects: 1)build a new type of great power relations and strengthen third-party market cooperation to address the risk of great power intervention;2)strengthen political mutual trust and build a community of shared future to address the risk of government change;3)enhance the gain of domestic group in the host country and realize peopleto-people connectivity to address the risk of opposition from domestic groups in host country;4)construct the overall BRI risk prevention & control mechanism to protect Chinese oversea enterprises.