Measurement Of China's Current Account Imbalance From The Perspective Of Value-added Trade Statistics

There is a double-counting of the value of intermediate goods in the current account balance under the traditional total value trade statistics,so that the total value statistics based on the geographical concept and based on the criteria of origin of traded goods cannot correctly reflect the actual added value of each country.Unable to adapt to the trend of globalization and increasingly complex international division of labour and cooperation,it is impossible to measure a country's real trade situation,to the extent that it overestimates or underestimates a country's industrial competitiveness and creates a "statistical illusion".However,scholars at home and abroad put forward that the statistical method of value-added trade accounting system can effectively eliminate this "statistical illusion" and show the real trade situation of different countries in the global value chain.The current account accounting of our country is carried out under the total value trade system,and the total value statistics is misleading to how to exchange the commodity value between countries,which distorts the reality of international integration and the role and influence of specific countries in the international market.In this economic context,the measurement and research of the real current account is very necessary and urgent.Therefore,the current account imbalance of our country should be revised from the perspective of value-added trade statistics,so as to avoid double calculation in international trade statistics,so that we can clearly understand the value-added situation of our country in different production links.It can more objectively reflect the position and degree of our country in the global value chain,and show the real level of our current account.In view of the inconsistency between the two GDP pricing methods in calculating the degree of current account imbalance,this paper modifies the real effective exchange rate of RMB against the US dollar through the decomposition of value-added trade.Thus,the real situation of China's GDP under the exchange rate law in international comparison is obtained,which reduces the above inconsistencies,and then the current account imbalances of 44 countries and regions in the world are re-calculated,focusing on the analysis of Sino-US trade reflected in the current account.Then reassess the degree of foreign trade imbalance of various countries,from the horizontal international and vertical domestic comparative analysis of different years,as far as possible to restore the true degree of current account imbalance in China;finally,discuss the influencing factors of current account imbalance in China.The results show that the import dependence of China on American products is higher than that of the United States on Chinese products.China should continue to actively encourage creative innovation,master core technology and improve product competitiveness.However,the imbalance of China's foreign trade is not prominent in the world,and it is not credible to accuse China of trade dumping in the world today.