Research On Financial Leasing Investment Risk Based On Logit Model

Since the 1960 s,since financial leasing has obvious institutional advantages over traditional bank credit models,indirect financing can be realized by means of material as a medium.Financial leasing has rapidly expanded from the United States to countries and regions such as Europe and Japan.Compared with European and American countries,the development of China's financial leasing industry started relatively late.On August 31,2015,the General Office of the State Council officially issued the “Guiding Opinions on Accelerating the Financial Leasing Industry”,and comprehensive system deployment accelerated the development of the financial leasing industry,which prompted China.Financial leasing entered a stage of rapid development.According to the data at the end of 2017,the number of financial leasing companies in China has exceeded 9,and the total business volume has exceeded 6 trillion.First of all,this paper introduces the relevant theoretical basis of financial leasing,which is mainly to provide a theoretical basis for the analysis of the problems and empirical research of A financial leasing enterprises.Secondly,it analyzes the current situation of A-finance leasing company business and the problems it faces.Third,through the principal component analysis of the factors affecting the investment risk of A financial leasing company.The principal component analysis method is used to reduce the dimensionality of the relevant index variables of the project investment risk,and the collinearity problem of the explanatory variables is eliminated.According to the score of the common factor,it is divided into three types of principal components: project guarantee capability,project term risk and project management risk.Factors provide the basis for building Logit model analysis.Through the empirical research on the influencing factors of the project investment default risk of A financial leasing company,it is found that the influence of various variables on the project investment default probability is obvious.In the overall industry investment item,the main component of the project guarantee capability(X1)has a negative impact on the investment default risk,and the three principal component factors such as the project term risk(X2)and the project operation risk(X3)and(X4)are the risk of investment default risk.Produce positive direction effects.In support industry projects,both X1 and X3?X4 have a negative impact on the explanatory variables,while X2 has a positive impact on the probability of default;in prudent support for industry projects,X1,X2,X3,X4 all have a positive impact on the explanatory variables..According to the research conclusions,when selecting the project investment,it is necessary to make necessary selection and optimization design according to the industry attribute of the project,and achieve the goal of reducing the probability of investment default.In addition,through inspection,it is found that the investment default forecast model of the overall industry project,the support industry industry investment default risk prediction model and the prudent support industry project default prediction model have AUC values greater than 0.7,indicating that the above model has high accuracy and can be used Predict the default risk of investment in different industry projects.Based on the conclusions from the previous theoretical and empirical studies,the policy recommendations for A-finance leasing companies to improve their business plans are proposed.