The Effect Of Population Aging On Labor Productivity In The Yangtze River Economic Belt

With steady and rapid development of economy and society,aging has become a major problem worldwide.China is enduring sustained and profound changes on population scale and its age structure,with far greater degree and speed than any other countries.China has already become a country with population aging formally,with unique characteristics of "getting old before getting rich" and "rapid aging of population".China's elderly population is expected to grow into 260 million by 2020,and 440 million people by 2050,accounting for one fourth of the total population.Meanwhile,the dependency ratio is predicted to increase from 2.8:1 by now to1.3:1 by 2050.The huge pressure from excessive dependency ratio may completely offset the achievements of economic development.The situation of population aging in China is becoming increasingly serious.On March 25,2016,the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee voted and adopted the "Outline of the Development Planning of the Yangtze River Economic Zone",thus establishing a new pattern for steady development of the Yangtze River Economic Zone with "one axis,two wings,three poles and multiple points".The construction of the Yangtze River Economic Zone is an extremely important strategic plan made by the CPC Central Committee centered around Comrade Xi Jinping to scientifically and reasonably developing China's economy,as well as an important measure to promote the synergistic development of the Yangtze River Basin.Now the Yangtze River Economic Zone has become part of national strategic plans,However,quite a few cities in the area are currently facing challenges from high degree of population aging,which will create resistance to subsequent development.Therefore,this paper focuses on the current situation of population aging in the Yangtze River Economic Zone,in an effort to provide theoretical research and data analysis results to support the process of disposition and implementation of important national strategy.This paper consists of relevant theories,domestic and foreign researches,literature review,mechanism analysis,as well as studies into current status of population aging in the Yangtze River Economic Zone.In the part of literature review,this paper studies the related theories of population aging and labor productivity,and systematically reviews the research on the relationship between population aging and labor productivity by domestic and foreign scholars,so as to gain useful enlightenment.In the part of mechanism research,this paper starts with Cobb-Douglas production function theory,and studies the influence of population aging on labor productivity from the basic law of demography,and studies the influence mechanism of population aging on labor productivity from the perspective of economics.In the part of the analysis of current status of population aging in the Yangtze River Economic Zone,this paper conducts descriptive statistical research on the present situation and dynamic evolution of the degree of population aging,dependency ratio as well as industrial structure in the region,and then concludes that the population aging in 11 provinces of the Yangtze River Economic Zone is serious and exhibits a steady growth trend as a whole.However,the regional differences are more significant,among which Shanghai has its own particularity.Based on the above-mentioned theoretical research and current situation analysis,this paper further carries out empirical research.Based on the availability of data,this paper chooses panel data of 11 provinces and cities along the Yangtze River Economic Zone during the period from 2000 to 2016 to carry out progressive regression analysis,and constantly introduces various control variables to further analyze the impact of population aging on labor productivity.The empirical results show that: 1.There is a positive relationship between population aging and labor productivity in the Yangtze River Economic Zone.No matter which control variable is added,the dependency ratio of the elderly passes the significant test at the level of 1%,which means that it can have a significant positive impact on labor productivity.(1)Generally speaking,the population aging will lead to a decline in labor productivity,which is a long-term judgment.(2)In the short term,the rise of the aging index probably means that the population with experience and skills is also increasing.And it will lead to a rise in labor productivity instead in a short time.(3)Although the aging index has risen,a considerable portion of the aging population has retired without rest,which can promote the improvement of labor productivity as well.2.Human capital per worker,the proportion of secondary industry and the proportion of tertiary industry have significant positive impacts on labor productivity.(1)From 2000 to 2016,GDP per unit increased steadily.However,it didn't make a significant breakthrough as technological level,especially didn't appear an obvious labor-saving technology bias.At the same time,the labor-intensive industries in the Yangtze River Economic Belt have achieved rapid development.The two effects have offset each other,which hasn't result in a significant improvement in labor productivity at the same time during this period.(2)About R&D internal expenditure.It's generally believed that expenditure of research and development will reduce the use of labor,but the premise of this conclusion is that technological progress reflects the substitution of machines for labor.In recent years,the R&D of Chinese enterprises has mainly focused on the development of new products and has not reduced the use of the workforce.Therefore,it is still questionable what proportion of Chinese enterprises' R&D investment is used to improve labor productivity.(3)About the unemployment rate.The rate of unemployment passed the significant test at the level of 1%,which means that an increase in the unemployment rate will significantly hinder the improvement of labor productivity.3.Capital per unit GDP,internal R&D expenditure and unemployment rate have significant negative effects on labor productivity.Finally,this paper puts forward the following policy recommendations:(1)Make full use of the "golden age" to develop social economy.(2)Delay retirement age and implement flexible retirement system.(3)Accelerate the layout of the second and third industrial structures and adjust the industrial structures of the upper,middle and lower reaches.(4)Increase the investment on human capital to improve the quality of human capital.(5)To adjust the age structure of regional population through the benign flow of population.