Analysis On The Influence Of Population Divide Transformation On Economic Growth In Yangtze River Delta

Since 1965,whether demographic dividends and population growth have contributed to the economy has been a topic of discussion among scholars.The main impact of the first demographic dividend on economic growth is the size and proportion of the labor force.The second demographic dividend is mainly driven by social capital to promote economic growth.The demographic dividend played a key role in China's rapid economic growth in the past 30 years,and is gradually weakening.The innate resources and location advantages of the Yangtze River Delta urban agglomeration determine its economic status.In 2017,the GDP of the region was 19.53 trillion yuan.The total population is 224 million,accounting for 23.68% and 16.12% of the country respectively.However,there is little literature on the demographic dividend in the Yangtze River Delta.This paper firstly combs the relevant theories between demographic transition and economic development,then analyzes the impact of demographic dividend changes on economic growth in the Yangtze River Delta region,and finally verifies whether the demographic dividend in the Yangtze River Delta region can promote economic growth.The study found that:(1)Population age structure and the number of working-age population: The proportion of the population aged 65 and over in the Yangtze River Delta in 1991 has reached 7.31%,compared with the national 10 years earlier into the aging society,compared with 2010 and The transformation of the population structure pyramid in 2050 from the "spindle-mushroom type" found that the old-age dependency ratio of the 2050-old triangle will grow from 13.48:100 in 2010 to 60.54:100;the working-age population in the 2050-old triangle will decline.To 116 million,accounting for only 71.08% of the working-age population in 2010,which indicates that the gap in the labor force in the Yangtze River Delta will increase in the next 30 years,and the age structure of the population will bring about an aging population;(2)The current situation of the population dividend in the Yangtze River Delta: China has entered the demographic dividend period since the mid-1980 s.The Yangtze River Delta region opened the population opportunity window in 1990.During the period,it experienced the demographic dividend from 1990 to 1998,from 1999 to 2020.The population is hugely profitable and closed around 2030,for a total of about forty years;but the degree of performance in different provinces and cities is different.In 1990,the contribution rate of demographic dividends in Shanghai and Zhejiang was higher than 5% entered the demographic dividend harvest period.In 1995,Jiangsu entered the demographic dividend harvest period.Until 2010,Anhui's demographic dividend contribution rate was 9.22% and entered the demographic dividend harvest period.(3)Empirical analysis of the demographic dividend change on the economic growth of the Yangtze River Delta Analysis: The reduction of the population dependency ratio has a positive effect on economic growth.The increase of labor population and savings has positively promoted economic growth.Shanghai,Jiangsu and Zhejiang provinces have gained a higher demographic dividend effect than Anhui Province.A one percentage point drop in the population dependency ratio will have a positive impact on the Yangtze River Delta economic growth rate of 15.5895 percentage points.Finally,based on the conclusions of the full text,this paper puts forward some suggestions on adjusting the population policy,the business opportunities in the old market,improving the medical service to implement the “Healthy China 2030” strategic plan,adjusting the industrial structure,and improving the quality of the labor force.