Population Aging And Economic Growth

The world today is facing a serious population aging problem,and the proportion of the elderly population shows a sustaining increase in most regions of the world.According to the latest statistics of the United Nations,there are 703 million people over the age of 65 worldwide in 2019,accounting for 9%of the total population.It's reported that the elderly population in East Asia(over 65 years old)accounted for more than one third of the world's elderly population(over 65 years old)in 2019,reaching 37%,making East Asia the region with the largest elderly population at present.According to the latest census data,the elderly population in China accounted for 13.50% in 2020,and the aging rate of the population is significantly faster than that of many low and middle-income countries.China is now in a critical period of economic and industrial transformation,and problems such as labor shortage and changes in labor population structure brought about by the aging problem have become increasingly prominent.However,there are still debates about the impact of population aging on economic growth in academic circles,and the relevant research is still insufficient.There is important reference significance of research on population aging and economic growth from the perspective of international comparison for the national strategy dealing with population aging in China.The core issue of this paper is: how does population aging affect economic growth? To this end,this research is arranged by four steps: First,it reviews literature on how population aging affects the savings rate,labor participation rate and labor productivity,and then affects economic growth.Second,comparative analysis of the development process and causes of population aging in Europe,North America and East Asia,and summarizes the measures to deal with the aging of the population in typical countries of these regions.Third,This paper constructed a panel data covering 102 countries from 1961 to 2019 and used fixed-effect models to estimate the impact of population aging on economic growth,with further subregional comparisons for Europe,North America and East Asia.Fourth,the savings rate,labor participation rate and labor productivity are selected as mediating variables to explore the mediating path of the impact of population aging on economic growth.The main conclusions are given as follows: First.Population aging is the product of economic development,and it is the dual result of fewer children and increasing life expectancy.The measures taken by various countries to deal with population aging are mainly divided into two types: slowing down population aging and coping with population aging.Second,population aging significantly affect economic growth.Compared with developed countries in Europe,population aging in East Asia has larger inhibiting effect on economic growth.Third,in the whole sample,there is significant mediating effects with savings rate and labor productivity as mediating variables,but there is no mediating effect with labor participation rate as mediating variable.In terms of regional heterogeneity,population aging in Europe inhibits economic growth by the reduction of savings rate and labor productivity.Population aging in East Asia inhibit economic growth by the reduction of savings rate,but it promotes the increase of labor productivity,which to some extent offsets the bad side of population aging.