Study On The Impact Of Population Aging On Stochastic Economic Growth

According to the result of the seventh national population census shows that since 2000,our country entered the aging society,aging degree deepening,the natural population growth rate reduced rapidly,people life expectancy increased significantly,followed by labor supply,medical and health care,social security and other relevant fiscal spending increases unceasingly,squeeze the public finance expenditure of the project such as education,science and technology.It undermines the stability and rationality of the fiscal structure,and thus has a negative impact on economic development.In order to study how the average and fluctuation of medical and health expenditure affects the sustainable development of economy under the background of irreversible aging,this paper establishes a three-sector stochastic growth model composed of producers,governments and representative consumers,and introduces the time discount factor into the aging factor.The dynamic programming method is used to solve the utility maximization problem of representative consumers,and the expression of mean economic growth rate is derived.This paper uses the method of comparative static analysis to carry out in-depth research and discussion,and obtains three related propositions.It holds that the impact of population aging,the mean value of medical and health expenditure and fluctuation on economic growth are not fixed,but related to the intertemporal elasticity of substitution of residents’ consumption in this region.Based on the data of 30 provincial-level administrative regions（except Tibet）in China from 2003 to 2019,this paper makes an empirical test and concludes that the social phenomenon in the past 20 years is basically consistent with the proposition conclusion.We divide China into three regions,east and West,and analyze the regional heterogeneity.We believe that the negative impact of population aging on economic growth gradually expands with east,west and West.The mean value of medical and health expenditure is significantly negatively correlated with economic growth in the eastern and central regions,and its fluctuation is significantly positively correlated with economic growth,while it is opposite in the western regions.Based on analysis of the regional heterogeneity in various areas to show the difference,in this paper,considering the influential factors on economic growth change leads to flow of factors of production between different areas,it may form an aging population,health care spending mean and volatility of adjacent region spatial spillover effect of economic growth,so the spatial econometric analysis.According to the empirical results,an ageing population will produce negative to adjacent areas of economic growth of spatial spillover effects,mean and volatility in health care spending in adjacent areas there is no significant spatial spillover effect,and the adjacent region between the economic development level is overflow existence,that is,a region’s economic growth in different degree,to drive its adjacent region of economic growth.At the end of this paper,based on the research conclusions and on the premise of maintaining social stability,relevant policy suggestions are put forward as follows :（1）promote the development of "silver economy" and carry out fertility policies adapted to social development;（2）Optimize the structure of government public expenditure and increase investment in education;（3）Increase the investment and expenditure on medical research and improve the life and utilization efficiency of medical and health products;（4）Develop science and technology,encourage innovation,improve total factor productivity and raise the level of economic growth;（5）Formulate corresponding policies for the western region to attract and encourage talents to devote themselves to the construction of the western region;（6）Encourage inter-regional exchanges of factors of production to better leverage the spatial spillover effects of economic growth.