Population Structure, Technological Innovation And Technological Complexity Of My Country's Manufacturing Exports

Since entering the 20 th century,China’s manufacturing export trade has been developing rapidly,and the manufacturing system has been constantly improved.But after years of rapid export growth,there is less and less room for China to improve its exports by copying advanced technology through a "demographic dividend".the traditional comparative advantage is diminishing,It is difficult for China to continue to improve its competitiveness in global trade by relying only on the extensive development mode of expanding export scale and low-cost contract manufacturing.In the context of the profound transformation of China’s demographic structure,to create a second demographic dividend space,excavating the dividend of human capital and increasing the investment in human capital will improve the level of technological innovation and upgrade the export structure.Therefore,to explore the internal influence mechanism among demographic structure,technological innovation and export structure upgrading is in line with the current stage of China’s transformation and upgrading from "Made in China" to "Intelligent Made in China".Firstly,this paper verifies the effect of demographic change on the technological complexity of China’s manufacturing export,and explains its internal influence path thro ugh the intermediary effect of technological innovation.Then,it measures the demographic structure,technological innovation and China’s manufacturing industries and analyzes the results in detail.Secondly,in the empirical part,the paper selects the2007-2016 quantitative demographic structure index and quality demographic structure index,technological innovation index,China’s manufacturing industries index and other economic variables,This paper examines the impact of demographic structure on the technological complexity of China’s manufacturing industries through technological innovation from the perspective of manufacturing samples and three regions.The empirical results show that: First,both the optimization of quantitative demographic structure and the optimization of quality demographic structure have a positive effect on the improvement of technological complexity of China’s manufacturing industries through technological innovation.Second,the optimization of the population quality structure has a greater effect on the technological complexity of manufacturing exports than the enhancement effect of the age structure of the population.Thirdly,There is a mediating effect of technological progress in the promotion of quantitative demographic structure and quality demographic structure on the technological complexity of China’s manufacturing export.from the perspective of regional heterogeneity,the improvement of quality demographic structure in eastern China has a significant impact on the increase of manufacturing industries,while the quantitative demographic structure has no significant impact on the technical complexity of manufacturing industries in eastern China.The optimization of quality demographic structure and quality demographic structure in the central and western regions can significantly improve the technical complexity of export.Fourthly,FDI,per capita GDP,trade openness and other factors also affect the technical complexity of China’s manufacturing export.Finally,on the basis of the research conclusions,the corresponding policy recommendations are put forward.