Research On The Impact Of Human Capital On Manufacturing Sophistication Of Export

With the advance of globalization,different countries and regions rely on their comparative advantages integrate into the Global Value Chain（GVC）led by developed countries.At the same time,the international division of labor is deepening.However,the demographic dividend,which played an important role when China participated in GVC,is shrinking in recent years.Under the background of the complicated international environment and the fading of Chinese demographic dividend,it is the key to realize the transformation from pure "quantity expansion" to "quality improvement" and the transformation from relying on "demographic dividend" to relying on "talent dividend".Implementing innovative strategy and relying on human capital to improve the technology level of export is a necessary choice to enhance the international competitiveness and GVC status of Chinese manufacturing industry,and it is also a necessary choice to realize the sustainable development of Chinese manufacturing industry.On the basis of referring the related domestic and foreign research,first of all,this paper analysis the theoretical mechanism of human capital influencing Export Sophistication（ESI）.More specifically,human capital can improve ESI through the effect of improving efficiency,the effect of technological innovation,the effect of optimization of industrial structure and the effect of foreign investment attracted.Then,this paper calculates and analyzes the current level of human capital and manufacturing ESI of China from 2002 to 2020,in other words,this paper clarifies the current situation of human capital and manufacturing ESI in China and establishes the data foundation for the empirical study below,and in this part,we also finds many potential problems therein.On this basis,this paper uses the panel data of 31 provinces in China from 2002 to 2019 to conduct an empirical study,and analyzes the actual impact of human capital on manufacturing ESI through benchmark regression,heterogeneity discussion and robustness test.Then,stepwise regression and Bootstrap methods are successively used to test and analyze the mediating mechanism of human capital influencing manufacturing ESI.Through theoretical analysis,description of current situation and empirical analysis,this paper finds that:Firstly,the human capital level and manufacturing ESI of China showed a steady upward growth trend,but the growth rate has slowed down in recent years.And there is an obvious gap in the level of human capital and the manufacturing ESI between east,central,west and northeast China.More specifically,the level of human capital is decreasing from east to northeast to central to west,and the manufacturing ESI is decreasing from east to central to northeast to west.Secondly,from the perspective of different factor-intensive manufacturing industries,the manufacturing ESI of three factor-intensive manufacturing industries have been increasing year by year and the growth rate has declined significantly in recent years in China.Among them,capital and technology-intensive manufacturing industries have the highest ESI,followed by labor-intensive and resource-intensive manufacturing industries.Thirdly,the improvement of human capital level can significantly promote the improvement of manufacturing ESI in China.Among them,the promotion of human capital level is the strongest in the northeast region,which is followed by the central and eastern region,while the western region has a smallest promotion.Fourthly,the improvement of human capital level in China has a significant positive impact on the manufacturing ESI through efficiency improvement effect,technological innovation effect,industrial structure optimization effect and foreign investment attraction effect.In other words,the improvement of human capital level can promote the improvement of the manufacturing ESI by improving labor productivity,promoting the invention and creation of new products,revitalizing high-tech manufacturing industry,attracting more foreign investment and giving full play to the positive effect of foreign investment on the host country.