Study On The Spatial Pattern And Forecast Of Agricultural Water Use Efficiency In China

Agriculture is of vital importance to China,and the condition of water resources affects agricultural production.The distribution of water resources in China is geographically diverse,freshwater resources are scarce,and the efficiency of agricultural water use is uneven.To alleviate the pressure and achieve long-term agricultural development,research on improving agricultural water efficiency needs to be on the agenda.This paper firstly provides support through conceptual definition and theoretical approach,deeply elaborates the current situation of agricultural water use and the main problems exposed,measures the efficiency of agricultural water use in 31 provinces of China from2010 to 2019 through SBM-Windows model and secondly uses VAR Granger causality test to define the spatial correlations of agricultural water use efficiency in 31 provinces of China,and the spatial correlation network characteristics of agricultural water use efficiency by social network analysis,and finally the prediction of agricultural water use efficiency in 31 provinces of China in the future to form suggestions to improve agricultural water use efficiency and promote the rational and optimal use of agricultural water resources in China.The main conclusions are:(1)The efficiency of agricultural water resources in 31 provinces in China is gradually growing from 2010 to 2019,but there is a certain degree of loss in water use efficiency,and the average value of annual efficiency in China is above 0.6,and there is some variability in agricultural water use efficiency in each province.(2)From the viewpoint of spatial distribution,China’s agricultural water efficiency shows the phenomenon of small area clustering,showing a situation that the eastern part is high,the western part is second and the central part is the lowest.(3)From the spatial correlation network,no province is independent of the network map,and from the individual network characteristics,the eastern and southern coastal areas are dominated by spillover effects,while the western and central regions are dominated by receiving spillover relationships.(4)Block model analysis shows that 8 provinces such as Shandong and Jiangsu are net spillover plates;7provinces such as Anhui and Shaanxi are net beneficiary plates;7 provinces such as Shanxi and Yunnan region are two-way spillover plates;9 provinces such as Guizhou and Guangxi are broker plates.The transmission relationship between the plates shows the characteristics of gradient.(5)From the prediction analysis,agricultural water efficiency as a whole is in a growing situation in2020-2029,but the gap between provinces is still large,and further measures are needed to promote the development of inefficient regions and ensure the uniformity of agricultural water efficiency in spatial distribution.