Cascading Failure Resistance Analysis Of Maritime Silk Road Container Shipping Network Under Dynamic Load

"21st century Maritime Silk Road" is an important development strategy put forward by China under the trend of regionalization and globalization.The advancement of the Maritime Silk Road strategy is inseparable from container liner transportation,and the container shipping network is very important as the carrier of container liner transportation.As a complex system exposed to the natural environment,the container shipping network may be affected by natural or man-made damage,such as harsh natural environment,large-scale wars,terrorist attacks,etc.,resulting in cascading faliure on the network,and then diffusing the scope of disasters.Cause immeasurable losses to the entire container shipping network.Therefore,it is of great significance to study the survivability of the container shipping network of the Maritime Silk Road under disasters and how to improve the survivability of cascading failures.This thesis firstly conducts screening statistics on the routes operated by domestic container liner companies,and according to the characteristics of container liner transportation,a directed weighted network model was constructed with ports as nodes and routes as edges.Then,the network topology characteristics are analyzed,and the scale-free and small-world characteristics of the Maritime Silk Road container shipping network are verified by the average path length and clustering coefficient.Secondly,the key nodes of container shipping network are identified by principal component analysis,and the comprehensive importance ranking of ports is obtained.Then,the propagation mechanism of network cascading failure is expounded,and a non-dynamic cascading failure model and a dynamic load cascading failure model are constructed based on the load capacity nonlinear model.Finally,using the maximum connected subgraph and network efficiency as the measures,the dynamic and non-dynamic load models of the Maritime Silk Road container shipping network are analyzed from the aspects of node failure mode,load redistribution strategy,network edge increase strategy and adjustable coefficient.According to the simulation results,some measures are proposed to enhance the network damage resistance.The research results show that: 1)Dynamic damage resistance of the network is weaker than static damage resistance under the consideration of cascade failure.2)The container shipping network of the Maritime Silk Road is more resilient to random attacks than deliberate attacks,and is less prone to cascading failures.3)The container shipping network of the Maritime Silk Road has the worst anti-destruction ability under the attack mode of comprehensive importance.4)The anti-damage capability of the network can be improved by appropriately increasing port capacity.5)The network damage resistance under dynamic load model is better than that under non-dynamic load model.6)When cascading failure occurs in the network,the residual capacity allocation strategy can effectively improve the survivability of the network.7)The strategy of adding edges according to the remaining capacity can effectively suppress network cascading failures,and the cost of adding edges is the lowest in this way.