Research On Road And Rail Transport Market Based On SD-Evolutionary Game Under The Background Of Low Carbon

On October 29 th,2021,the Ministry of Transport issued the "Fourteenth Five-Year Development Plan for Green Transportation".The plan clearly puts forward that it is necessary to actively promote the "revolving iron" work of bulk goods and medium and long-distance goods transportation,and establish an investment mechanism for green transportation development and construction with national and local government funds as the guide and enterprise funds as the main body.The green and low-carbon transformation of land freight transportation has become the focus of current transportation industry research,and "revolving iron" is considered to be one of the very effective means.However,as competitors in the same industry,the interests of road and rail are contradictory.How to effectively play the coordination and supervision role of the government in the transformation and fully mobilize rail and highways to actively participate in the "revolving iron" has become a huge challenge for the steady advancement of the market structure optimization of road and rail transportation.In order to coordinate the conflict of interests among the participants in the road and rail transportation market,this paper studies the interaction among highways,rail and governments under the incentive and restraint mechanism,and provides strategic reference for government decision makers to balance interests.Firstly based on the comprehensive analysis of the current situation of public railway transportation market and the related research on green and low-carbon transformation,this study deeply discusses the interactive relationship among government,railway and highway.After determining the basic assumptions and variable parameters according to the actual situation,an evolutionary game model with the characteristics of static rewards and punishments and dynamic rewards and punishments is constructed,which is solved by replicating dynamic equations,and the stability of the solution is determined by Jacobian matrix eigenvalue discrimination method.The results show that in the improved dynamic reward and punishment model,there are mixed strategy solutions besides pure strategy solutions.Secondly,the feasibility and advantages of integrating evolutionary game model with system dynamics model are discussed in depth.On the basis of considering the evolution game model of public railway transportation market from static and dynamic perspectives,this study first subdivides the variables into external variables,intermediate variables and horizontal variables according to the research process of system dynamics,and determines the influence relationship between the variables.Then,Vensim software is used to draw the causality loop diagram of the public railway transportation market system,thus successfully establishing the system dynamics model of the evolutionary game system.Finally,taking the relevant data of H province as an example,the dynamic models of static and dynamic reward and punishment systems are simulated and analyzed by Vensim software.The conclusions are as follows: increasing the subsidy to the railway and the extra tax on the highway can improve the probability of the transportation side actively "revolving the iron";Dynamic reward and punishment strategy can make evolutionary game tend to be stable,which is a more reasonable form of incentive and constraint;The change of dynamic subsidy base will only affect the time to reach the stable state,while the change of dynamic additional tax base will affect the final stable state of the system;After the dynamic reward and punishment model reaches a stable state,the government does not need to subsidize the railway,but it needs to continue to levy additional taxes on the highway.The minimum subsidy price required for railway initiative is 1.39 yuan/ton,the minimum additional tax price required for the policy to take effect is 0.35 yuan/ton,and the minimum additional tax price required for more than half of highways initiative is 0.70 yuan/ton.The above conclusions can provide reference for government supervision departments to formulate incentive and restraint policies in transportation structure adjustment.