| Traditional villages,as natural heritage preserved by coupling of natural environment and human activities,are facing the problem of rapid extinction with rapid development of urbanization and industrialization in the world.At the same time,along with rapid improvement of people’s living standards and quality,the protection and tourism development of traditional villages have become an inevitable requirement for comprehensive forward development of society,economy,culture and environment.To achieve this target,countries around the world have enacted a series of regulations for the protection and implemented numerous measures for tourism development in different historical periods.However,the process of formulating relevant policies still lacks certain scientific,universal and long-term guiding bases.Based on the premise that the interests of governments,developers and residents are mutually influenced and constrained,this paper constructs several evolutionary game models based on the combination of evolutionary game theory(EGT)and system dynamics,through integration of qualitative and quantitative methods,to explore evolutionary stability strategies(ESS)and stability conditions of stakeholders under different conditions,and verifies the theoretical results through numerical simulation.Moreover,this study provides scientific and reasonable practical guidance for the sustainable development of traditional villages.The main research contents of this paper are as follows:At first,combining EGT and system dynamics,this paper constructs a dynamic evolutionary game model for the protection and tourism development of traditional villages,which can better identify logical correlations among variables and systems,clearly and completely grasp the complex interaction process of interests among stakeholders.This paper systematically explores the impacts of dynamic changes of internal and external factors on decision-making direction and speed of subjects,and draws three important conclusions: a)the strategic evolution of stakeholders is a process of mutual influence and continuous adjustment and optimization to reach the ideal stable state; b)whether stakeholders are rational or irrational,the basic cost is an important factor limiting stakeholders’ decision-making,and the high cost of investment is not conducive to sustainable development of traditional on System Dynamics villages; c)the decision-making of stakeholders can converge to an ideal stable state under certain conditions,and the evolutionary results and speed show consistent interdependence.Secondly,this paper proposes a synergistic effect and dynamic penalty control method,which effectively suppresses the system fluctuation and promotes the subjects’ strategies to reach the equilibrium steady state faster.After systematically exploring the evolution process and trend of subject’s strategies under different conditions,this paper obtains the following important conclusions: the coupling effect between subjects of interest through certain means can effectively promote evolution of the system to ideal stable state,a)governments and developers share benefits and risks through the synergy effect to restrain each other’s negative behaviors; b)governments effectively regulate developers’ behaviors through dynamic penalty control method; c)residents effectively restrain the losses caused by the violations of governments and developers through their resistance behaviors.Thirdly,considering the emotional preferences in traditional villages ecotourism development,this paper constructs evolutionary game models to explore the strategy evolution of stakeholders in different emotional states,revealing complexity and uncertainty of stakeholders in decision-making process,which makes the research results have stronger realistic explanatory power.Two important conclusions can be concluded: a)stakeholders’ emotional index plays a decisive role in their decision-making,optimistic emotions increase the probability of positive behaviors and pessimistic emotions increase the probability of negative behaviors; b)stakeholders tend to conservative behaviors in order to avoid risks when facing gain risks and risky behaviors in order to pursue risks when facing loss risks.The research remedies deficiencies in the applied research methods of traditional villages protection and tourism development,provides novel ideas for the sustainable development of traditional villages,contributes to explaining the behavioral decisions of stakeholders,and provides a more scientific and reasonable theoretical basis for the formulation and improvement of relevant laws and regulations. |
