The PCA-GRNN Method Of The Research On The Sales Forecast Of Diaper Bag

Diaper bag is designed for mothers and infants to travel,and is specially designed for functional bags for infant products.With the changes of modern parenting concepts and habits in our country,as well as the full opening of the second-child policy,consumption upgrades and so on,the market size of diaper bags is gradually expanding.However,due to rising labor and raw material costs,as well as the entry of competitors,the pressure on diaper bag companies is also increasing.Therefore,analyzing and forecasting the market sales volume of diaper bags is of great significance to diaper bag manufacturers in raw material preparation,inventory management,and product decision-making.This paper chooses the products of the author’s family business as the research object.Based on the research on the development of diaper bag industry at home and abroad and the market characteristics of diaper bag,this paper adopts PEST analysis method to analyze the external macro environment affecting diaper bag sales from the perspective of Politics,economic,social culture and technology.in terms of economics,the main analysis of the development trend of gross domestic product in recent years;in terms of policies,the main analysis of the population birth rate changes with the changes in population-related policies;in terms of social environment,it mainly analyzes the consumer price index and the consumption.Using on-site research on diaper bag manufacturers,analyzing the internal micro-environment that affects diaper bag sales such as the average sales price and sales style of diaper bags,and comprehensively derives six factors that affect diaper bag sales;secondly,Using PCA principal component analysis method to analyze its impact factors,and two impact factors that could contain 95.084%of the original factor index were obtained.in view of the fact that the collected annual sales volume data samples of diaper bag manufacturers are small,then it is proposed generalized regression neural network GRNN’s diaper bag sales forecast model.By optimizing the smoothing factor in GRNN,improve the training efficiency of the model and the prediction performance.Finally,through the 2020 estimated value of each impact factor,the forecast model is applied to predict the sales volume of diaper bag manufacturers in 2020.