Analysis And Coordination Of "Three-line Conflict" Based On Dynamic Game Model

Land resources are the basis for human survival and development on earth,and can be comprehensively utilized by human beings to produce natural resources greater than their own value.With the rapid construction of modern economic system,the emergence of new urbanization and the continuous growth of population,land resources are increasingly scarce,resulting in frequent land use conflicts,which have seriously hindered the sustainable use of land resources.The boundary of urban development dominated by the former urban construction department,the permanent basic farmland determined by the former land department and the ecological protection red line(referred to as"the third line")dominated by the former environment department have become the important means and policy measures to coordinate the social,economic and ecological sustainable development of national space.Although the authority of the"third-line"demarcation is now unified to the natural resources department,the stakeholders in the"third-line"demarcation(urban construction department,land department,environmental protection department)have not changed fundamentally,and the demarcation result is still the result of multi-party interest game.How to solve the conflict of"third line"and scientifically delimit"third line"are the key technical measures to coordinate the contradiction between territorial space development and protection,and also the scientific problems and problems to be solved urgently in land science nowadays.Taking the Hukou County as an example,this study uses superposition analysis to determine the conflict pattern of the"three lines",and divides the pairwise conflicts between the"three lines"into three categories:urban agricultural conflict,ecological urban conflict and ecological agricultural conflict.TCLI and spatial autocorrelation analysis were used to reflect the intensity of conflict and hot spot aggregation areas,and the characteristics of the number,distribution and intensity of"three lines"conflict in Hukou county were identified.The land resource value system and other elements of the conflict map are introduced,and the"three departments"are taken as the game subject to build a dynamic game model to coordinate the"three lines"conflict.The results are as follows:(1)the area of urban-agricultural conflict is 771.34 hm~2,the area of eco-urban conflict is 207.59 hm~2,and the area of eco-agricultural conflict is 16.91 hm~2.The intensity of different types of conflict was 0-0.131,0-0.616 and 0-0.143,respectively.The intensity index of eco-urban conflict was large and the conflict was the strongest.It shows that in practice,different departments have different delineation standards,technical requirements and management policies due to their diversified interest orientation,leading to conflicts in the delineation of the"three lines",which is not conducive to the promotion and improvement of the"integration of multiple regulations"proposed by the central government.(2)The Moran’s I indexes of the intensity of urban-agricultural conflict,ecology-urban conflict and ecology-agricultural conflict in the study area were 0.6645,0.5153 and 0.9361,respectively,which all passed the significance test.The results show that the boundaries of the three control lines in Hukou county conflict with each other obviously.(3)Through the dynamic game model,the probability and frequency of the conflict spots selected by the Department,as well as the relationship between the Department’s demand for land and the compensation of the superior government,the value of land resources and the cost of competition are compared and analyzed.The ecological Department competed 704 times and obtained 362 spots in total;The urban sector competed 2236 times and finally obtained 1916 map spots;The agricultural sector competed 3371 times and finally obtained 2748 spots.In the long run,competition among departments,on the one hand,can promote the maximization of the interests of each department and the follow-up development,but if the superior does not have good supervision,it will lead to the"intensified"competition,which is not conducive to the construction of"beautiful China"and the sustainable development of social economy.(4)The final demarcated urban development boundary area is 4827.77 hm~2,the ecological red line area is 5874.28 hm~2,and the permanent basic farmland protection red line area is 18927.68 hm~2.Based on the study of dynamic game model and the coordination of"three-line"conflict,the result of"three-line"optimization is more consistent with the reality of the Hukou County.This study will"three line"drawn with the establishment of the national spatial planning system and closely linked to the regulation,help from county space Angle of view to deepen the understanding of conflict"three line"problem,science to determine the"three line"for the county scale,reasonable use of land and space provides a certain reference,at the same time solve other spatial planning for county scales border conflict.