Simulation Study On The Synergistic Effect Of Coal Production Capacity Regulation Policy And Environmental Tax In China

With the consumption of fossil energy and the increase of carbon emission,the problems of energy security and ecological environment destruction in China are becoming more and more serious.In order to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and limit the use of fossil fuels,China has issued a series of energy policies.On the other hand,the implementation of environmental tax provides policy support for environmental protection and environmental pollution control in China.Coal production capacity regulation policies and environmental taxes affect energy consumption and control pollution emissions from energy input and output respectively.Whether the synergy between the two will be more conducive to the coordinated development of energy economy environment system is worth further discussion.Firstly,by combing the relevant research literature at home and abroad,as well as the development process of coal production capacity regulation policy and environmental tax,this paper analyzes the current situation of the implementation of coal industry and environmental tax.First,before studying the collaborative simulation,this paper analyzes the theory of the synergistic effect of coal production capacity regulation policy and environmental tax,finds that they are consistent in the policy transmission process and objectives,and further analyzes the impact of the synergy on economy,energy and environment,so as to lay a theoretical foundation for the later simulation analysis.Secondly,the dynamic computable general equilibrium model is used to simulate the synergy between the two,establish each module of the synergy Dynamic CGE model,split and merge the production departments of the original input-output table,further compile the macro and micro social accounting matrix tables,and use the cross coefficient entropy method as the data basis of the model.Thirdly,the parameter estimation of the model is completed by GAMS software,and the rationality of the model is tested.Finally,set a benchmark scenario,five environmental tax simulation scenarios,two coal production capacity regulation policy simulation scenarios and eight collaborative simulation scenarios to simulate the changes in macroeconomic,energy and environment of each policy scenario after the single environmental tax scenario,single coal production capacity regulation policy scenario and collaborative scenario model reach equilibrium.The final analysis and simulation results show that:The simulation results of the synergistic effect on macro-economy show that the synergistic effect of coal production capacity regulation policy and environmental tax has longterm and short-term effects on the economy.The more stringent the collaborative simulation scenario is,the more unfavorable it is to GDP growth.In the short run,synergy can increase residents’ income,but in the long run,the collaborative simulation scenarios of E4C20,E5C20,E4C30 and E5C30 are not conducive to the increase of residents’ income.The synergy of the two will reduce government revenue,but can increase social welfare.The simulation results of energy impact show that the synergistic effect of the two reduces the consumption of coal,oil and natural gas,and E3C20 scenario has the best energy-saving effect on oil,coal and natural gas.The simulation results of energy consumption in various sectors show that the synergy effect is helpful to reduce energy consumption,and has a great impact on high energy consumption and pollution sectors.The simulation results of environmental impact show that the synergistic effect is conducive to the coordinated emission reduction of sulfur and carbon,and the carbon emission reduction and sulfur emission reduction effects of E3C20 scenario are the best.The simulation results of sulfur dioxide and carbon dioxide emissions of various departments show that E5C20 scenario is the most conducive to departmental carbon emission reduction,and E3C20 scenario is the most conducive to sulfur emission reduction.The stronger the synergy effect,the better the emission reduction effect.However,the greater the negative impact on GDP,income and social welfare in the short term,and the negative impact will gradually weaken in the long term.Finally,according to the simulation results,suggestions are put forward: considering the continuity and implementation time of policy implementation,establish an orderly exit mechanism of coal production capacity,reduce ineffective supply,promote the transformation of enterprises from raw material type to deep processing,pay attention to the relevance and coupling of various policies,pay attention to the synergy of pollution reduction and emission reduction,multi pollutant collaborative control,regional collaborative prevention and control and the collaborative governance of various factors,Strengthen the systematic and comprehensive evaluation of policy coordination.