Intertemporal Optimization And Regulation Mechanism Of China’s Coal Production Capacity

The fluctuation of coal production capacity influences the optimal allocation of coal resources and the stable and orderly operation of the national economy.The Chinese government has been committed to coal production capacity management.However,China’s coal production capacity still enters a vicious cycle,or "undercapacity-capacity incentives policy-overcapacity-de-capacity policy-undercapacity".In order to solve the current difficulties in China’s coal production capacity management,this paper followes the research thought of “calculation of optimal production capacity-estimation of capacity deviation-causes of capacity deviation-realization mechanism of optimal production capacity” from the perspective of the whole production capacity cycle,and answers a series of scientific questions,including the quantity of the optimal coal production capacity,the deviation extent of the actual capacity from the optimal capacity,the reason for the deviation of actual capacity from optimal capacity,and the path to achieve the optimization management of the production capacity in China.Firstly,the boundary production function method is used to calculate the boundary capacity which is taken as the estimated value of actual prodction capacity in China’s coal industry from 1990 to 2017.According to boundary capacity estimated,capacity utilization in 1990-2017 are calculated.On this basis,combined with the industrial economic cycle theory,the concept of coal production capacity cycle is defined,the fluctuation characteristics of coal production capacity cycle are analyzed,and the cycle is divided into four phases.Then,taking minimum accumulated cost for the whole period including storage cost,out-of-stock cost,exit cost and environmental cost as the objective function,and taking the minimum quantity of production capacity to ensure national energy security as the production capacity constraint,we build the dynamic planning model of China’s coal optimal production capacity,and solute its optimal values,or China’s optimal production capacity each year in the period of 1990-2025.Secondly,the annual production capacity deviation level and degree are calculated by the data of the actual and optimal production capacity.The China’s coal production capacity deviation is quantitatively divided into the natural deviation on the supply side,and the cyclical deviation on the demand side based on the state space model and the Kalman filter algorithm.Their fluctuation characteristics,symbol characteristics,and the roles in the production capacity deviation are analyzed.Third-ly,taking a representative manufacturer as an example,we studys the formation mechanism of natural and cyclical deviation,respectively.Comprehensively considering these two respects,this paper researchs the formation mechanism of China’s coal production capacity deviation,which are tested by the relevant data.Finally,based on production capacity deviation mechanism,China Coal Production Capacity Policy Simulation System(CCCDRS)is constructed to reflect the behavior models of production capacity decisions and policy responses under the coal market demand and government intervention.Based on the simulation system,this paper simulates the effect orientations,delay periods,and accumulative effects of single policy tools,simulates the synergy and crowding-out effects of multiple policy mix,and eventually presents four steps and application cases for the design of production capacity policy mix.The research results are as followings.According to the calculation results of boundary capacity and capacity utilization rate,China’s coal industry experienced two rounds of production capacity cycles in 1990-2017,and coal production capacity is characterized by cyclical fluctuation.Compared with actual coal production capacity,the optimal production capacities under full capacity cycle take the advantages of more stable development,more timely adjustment,and lower cost.Therefore,the production capacity problem should be studied and managed from the perspective of full capacity cycle.The deviation of coal production capacity is a joint outcome of natural and cyclical production capacity deviation,with significant differences in fluctuation characteristics,symbol characteristics,roles in production capacity deviation,causes,and countermeasures.The natural deviation is positive and small fluctuations,and plays an important role in overcapacity.Element cellaring effect,preventing entry effect,and government investment incentives have positive influence on the natural deviation.Cyclical production capacity deviation shows largely cyclical fluctuation with positive and negative alternation and promotes China’s coal production capacity into the alternation of overcapacity and undercapacity.Demand shocks,such as economic growth,energy intensity and energy structure,have negative effects on the cyclical deviation.Therefore,it is an effective way to design regulation policy based on the scientific judgment of sizes and causes of natural and cyclical deviation degrees.The CCCDRS system,designed according to the mechanism of capacity deviation,is characterized by reasonable structures,accordance with the reality,and it can provide multidimensional and quantitative decision references for policy designs.Thus,it is an effective support for the optimal management of China’s coal production capacity.The innovations of this paper are as followings.Taking the capacity deviation in the full capacity cycle as the research object,following a new approach to production capacity,or “calculation of optimal production capacity-estimation and causes of capacity deviation-realization mechanism of optimal production capacity”,we defines the concept of full capacity cycle,build the model of coal capacity inter-temporal optimization,put forward the concept of capacity deviation,build new calculation and quantitative deconstruction method of production capacity deviation,establish the new theoretical model of production capacity deviation mechanism based on the quantitative deconstruction of capacity deviation,construct CCCDRS model,and thus put forward a new method of multi-dimensional,systematic and quantitative coal capacity policy researches.This breaks through the limitations of the causes and countermeasures studies of overcapacity or undercapacity based on the overall level of overcapacity or undercapacity,and provides a new quantitative index,research perspectives,research paths and models for the optimization management research of coal production capacity.