Research On Carbon Emission Efficiency And Optimal Allocation Of Quota In Hunan Province Based On ZSG-DEA Model

With the changes in the global economic environment,the concept of green and lowcarbon development has become the consensus of the international community today.To shoulder the responsibility of emission reduction,China has put forward the double carbon target of "achieving carbon peak by 2030 and carbon neutral by 2060",which is one of the important tasks in the 14th Five-Year Plan period.Therefore,the efficient completion of the dual carbon target will be one of the important elements of Hunan Province to implement the "three high and four new" strategy and build a national important advanced manufacturing highland.Based on the analysis of the current situation of carbon emissions in the country and Hunan Province,this paper measures the target carbon emissions of Hunan cities and states and major industries to reach the carbon peak in 2030,and optimizes the carbon emission quota distribution scheme,and puts forward relevant suggestions for the reasonable distribution of CO2 emission reduction tasks and the improvement of carbon emission trading system.The main research conclusions are as follows:(1)According to the economic development situation of Hunan Province and the industrial layout in the market,we analyze the status of energy consumption,the current situation of CO2 emission distribution,and the problems faced in achieving the emission reduction target at present.And based on the emission reduction target in 2030,combined with the predicted average annual GDP growth rate,the CO2 emissions of each city and state in Hunan Province in 2030 were measured.(2)Based on the historical cumulative CO2 emissions of each city and state for the initial allocation of total carbon emissions,a model for the initial allocation of CO2 emission allowances based on the grandfather principle was constructed,and the traditional DEA BCC model was applied to evaluate the initial CO2 emission efficiency of Hunan Province.(3)Combined with the zero-sum benefit idea,the ZSG-DEA model was constructed and an optimal allocation scheme for the 2030 emission reduction target applicable to Hunan Province was established.Compared with the initial grandfather principle allocation results,the CO2 emission efficiencies were all improved after the re-planning using the ZSG-DEA model.From the perspective of the cities and states,Xiangtan,Yueyang,and Loudi emission reduction tasks ranked in the top three,the responsibility for emission reduction is heavy;Huaihua,Zhangjiajie,Xiangxi state CO2 emissions are less,the responsibility for emission reduction is lighter.And the province’s overall level of carbon emission efficiency is high,but there are still some differences.Among them,Changsha and Xiangtan have an emission efficiency of 1,achieving DEA effectiveness,while Huaihua has the lowest CO2 emission efficiency of 0.77.After the CO2 emission quota was reallocated,Loudi became the city with the largest carbon dioxide emission quota,allocated 1,256,800 tons of CO2 emission quota,and Zhangjiajie was the city with the smallest carbon dioxide emission quota,with only 41,400 tons of CO2 emission quota.After optimization,CO2 emission quotas are transferred from cities with relatively low levels of economic development to higher cities;from the perspective of industries,the initial efficiency of CO2 emission in six major industries in Hunan is low,and the difference in efficiency values among industries in 2020-2030 is obvious.Only the construction industry and the transportation,storage,and postal industry,etc.reach the effective allocation value of CO2 emission efficiency.However,the industrial efficiency value is 0.54,which can be seen that there is still a problem of low allocation efficiency,and the allocation should be optimized.After the optimized allocation,the industrial CO2 emission allowance is negative,so it should take the maximum responsibility for emission reduction.