Carbon Dioxide Emission Scenario Simulation And Emission Reduction Path Research Of China’s Steel Industry Under The Background Of "Double Carbon"

In today’s world,the issue of climate change has become a hot topic of common concern to the international community.In order to cope with the great challenges brought by global warming to human society,many countries in the world have set their own targets of carbon emission reduction and carbon neutralization.At the 75 th session of the United Nations General Assembly,China also proposed the "3060" double-carbon goal of striving to reach the peak value of carbon dioxide emissions by 2030 and striving to achieve carbon neutrality by 2060.To achieve these two goals,the joint efforts of all walks of life are indispensable.As one of the main sources of carbon dioxide emissions in China,China’s iron and steel industry is under great pressure of carbon emission reduction.Therefore,it is of great significance to study the carbon dioxide emission of iron and steel industry,analyze the effect of carbon dioxide emission reduction policy in this industry,and explore the corresponding carbon dioxide emission reduction path for realizing the double-carbon goal.Taking China’s iron and steel industry as the research object,this thesis constructs the Long-Range Energy Alternative Planning(LEAP)model combined with scenario analysis,sets three scenario parameters: baseline scenario,new policy scenario and technology promotion scenario,simulates and calculates the carbon dioxide emission and energy consumption of iron and steel industry from 2020 to 2050,and finally explores the corresponding carbon dioxide emission reduction path according to the results.The results show that:(1)The trend of carbon dioxide emissions and energy consumption of China’s iron and steel industry from 2020 to 2050 will rise first and then decline under three scenarios.The baseline scenario reaches the peak value of carbon dioxide emissions and energy consumption in 2032,which are 2.494 billion tons and 25.39 billion gigajoules respectively;The new policy scenario will peak in 2030,with carbon dioxide emissions of 2.224 billion tons and energy consumption of 24.02 billion gigajoules;The technology promotion scenario will peak in 2028 at 2.09 billion tons of carbon dioxide emissions and 22.27 billion gigajoules of energy consumption.By 2050,carbon dioxide emissions under the baseline scenario,new policy scenario and technology promotion scenario will be reduced by 12.51%,30.38% and48.49% respectively compared with the baseline year.(2)The baseline scenario simulates the carbon dioxide emission situation extrapolated according to the current development trend of the iron and steel industry.The new policy scenario adjusts the proportion of short-process electric furnace steelmaking,equipment large-scale level and other factors on the basis of the baseline scenario,while the technology promotion scenario adjusts the promotion and use ratio of energy-saving and emission-reduction technologies.Therefore,the peak year of carbon dioxide emission under the three scenarios is gradually advanced and the peak level is getting lower and lower.Considering the emission reduction of carbon dioxide and energy consumption,the energy-saving and emission reduction effects of the three scenarios are ranked as follows:Technology promotion scenario> New policy scenario> Baseline scenario.(3)Through the LEAP model,the single factor emission reduction benefit analysis is made on the main factors affecting carbon dioxide emission,and shows that the promotion of energy saving and emission reduction technology has the largest emission reduction benefit,followed by increasing the level of large-scale steel production equipment and increasing the proportion of electric furnace steelmaking.This thesis puts forward three carbon dioxide emission reduction paths according to the results: a.Promote the transformation of iron and steel process to short process;b.Improve the level of large-scale steel production equipment;c.Promote the promotion and use of energy saving and emission reduction technologies in coking,sintering,iron making,steel making and other processes.