Impact Of Independent Technological Innovation On Industrial Carbon Emission And Trend Prediction From The Perspective Of Structure

In order to cope with global warming,China has put forward the goal of reaching the carbon peak by 2030.China’s carbon emissions mainly come from industrial production,and its emission reduction results are related to the realization of China’s overall carbon peaking goal.For industrial low-carbon development,the role of independent technological innovation is increasingly prominent.However,the continuously adjusted industrial energy structure and industry structure may affect the emission reduction effect of independent technological innovation,and then affect the trend of industrial carbon emission.From the perspective of industrial structure,this paper studies the impact of independent technology innovation on industrial carbon emissions under the adjustment of industrial energy structure and industry structure,and then predicts industrial carbon emissions trend.First,based on the provincial panel data from 2010 to 2019,this study analyzes the development trend of China’s industrial energy structure,carbon emissions,industry structure and independent technological innovation.Then,this study constructs the STIRPAT extension model and the panel threshold effect model to clarify the impact of independent technological innovation on industrial carbon emissions from the perspective of structure.Finally,based on the empirical results,this study combines LSTM neural network and scenario analysis to predict industrial carbon emission trends.The results show that: First,in both linear regression and nonlinear regression models,independent technological innovation has a significant effect on reducing industrial carbon emissions,which has passed the robustness test.In addition,energy structure and industry structure have a significant positive and negative impact on industrial carbon emissions,respectively;Second,there are significant threshold effects of energy structure and industry structure in the emission reduction effect of independent technological innovation.Specifically,there is a double threshold effect in the energy structure.The threshold values are 16.98% and 31.18% respectively,and the larger the value,the weaker the emission reduction effect of independent technological innovation.However,the industry structure only has a single threshold effect,with a threshold value of 49.45%,and the impact on the emission reduction effect of independent technological innovation is opposite to that of the energy structure;Third,the prediction results of industrial carbon emissions show significant differences under different scenarios.Among them,the prediction results of the LSTM neural network show that the industrial carbon emissions of the baseline scenario will peak in 2024,but there will be a rebound trend after reaching the peak;while the industrial carbon emissions of the enhanced independent technological innovation scenario have a cumulative reduction of 327 million tc compared with the baseline scenario.And there is no rebound trend;the energy structure de-coalization scenario is not enough to effectively reduce industrial carbon emissions.The results provide theoretical basis for the industry to formulate low-carbon policies from the aspects of strengthening independent technological innovation,energy structure transformation and industry structure optimization,which are conducive to the low-carbon sustainable development of the industry,and then achieve the goal of carbon peaking.