Research On The Evolution Law And Risk Analysis Of Water Hazards In The 831 Mining Section Of Daxing Lead-Zinc Min

As one of the five major disasters in mines,the randomness and unpredictability of mine water hazards hinder the prevention,elimination of hidden dangers and research on disaster derivation.In this paper,based on the 831 section of Daxing lead-zinc mine in Yongsan Jinsha factory,we firstly analyze the hydrogeology of the mine system and estimate the water influx in the relevant section,and then use modflow software to analyze the water movement and distribution of the mine,so as to establish the water hazard chain and derive the factors related to the mine water hazard.Based on this,the risk assessment and analysis of water hazards in the mine section of the study area is carried out.The following are the main research results and contents of this paper:（1）Using the"hydrogeological comparison method"to predict and estimate the influx of water in the relevant mine section,the influx of water in the 831 mine section is 3818 m³/d,and the reliability of the actual influx monitoring value is 0.76,and based on the relevant hydrogeological profile,using modflow software to analyze the water movement pattern and distribution in the study area.Analysis of the distribution of water flow in the study area,it is concluded that the study area within the mine system elevation gradient,the water flow pattern is from high to low,from the southeast to the northwest direction of the flow mode,and the distribution of water flow is mainly reflected in the surface water and the fourth system stratigraphic fissure water,pore water recharge flow to the lower section of the underground water.（2）Through the analysis of water movement pattern and distribution in the study area and related water damage accidents,the water damage chain of the mine was constructed by using fishbone diagram to analyze the water damage disaster-related factors as a set of 3 major disaster chains with 33 disaster-related factors,and the evolutionary analysis and HMM model algorithm optimization were used to solve the complex network model to form the evolutionary model of water disaster chain consisting of 33 nodes and 55 evolutionary edges.Finally,four optimal evolutionary hazard chains are obtained by Beam-Welch algorithm.（3）Establishing a temporal risk assessment model of disaster evolution network,conducting semi-quantitative analysis of risk assessment,simulating the evolution of disasters,and dividing the risk level values of the event nodes of the disaster chain by coefficients of the weight of the assessment factors,resulting in two factors of C₃ rock layer is thin,C₈ mine channel waterproofing and water control work is not in place as level V risk,the rest of the existence of level IV risk of four related factors,level III risk of one related The remaining risk levelⅣis 4 factors,risk levelⅢis 1 factor,risk levelⅡis 1 factor,risk levelⅠis 1 factor;through Flac3d software numerical simulation of the study area mine shaft surrounding rock and the surrounding affected slope,risk assessment semi-qualitative analysis,by analyzing the sensitivity and variability of physical and mechanical parameters under the evolution of water damage,the sensitivity change is internal friction angle>cohesion>permeability coefficient≥porosity,and The peak and random variability fluctuations of infiltration coefficient and porosity exist,and the degree of risk of mine water damage to its two study subjects is derived.