Study On Influencing Factors And Carbon Reduction Strategies Of Construction Industry In Jiangsu Province

As the recognized main cause of global temperature rise,countries around the world are increasingly concerned about measures to reduce global carbon emissions.According to relevant data,the energy consumption of the construction industry accounts for half of the total energy,and the carbon emissions caused by it account for more than half of the global carbon emissions.As one of the countries with the highest contribution rate to global carbon emissions,China urgently needs to seek a series of measures to reduce carbon emissions.Jiangsu Province is a major construction province in China,and the carbon emissions generated by the construction industry cannot be ignored.Therefore,by analyzing the main sources of carbon emissions in the construction industry,it is of great significance to identify the key factors affecting the carbon emissions of the construction industry in Jiangsu Province,and to propose a targeted carbon reduction strategy.This research first discusses the research background,proposes the research purpose and significance of this research,and through the literature review,determines the scope of carbon emissions in the construction industry and the research method of this research.Then,with the aid of the carbon emission coefficient method,the direct carbon emissions,indirect carbon emissions and carbon emissions of the construction industry in Jiangsu Province from 2005 to 2019 were calculated respectively.Then,combined with the literature on the analysis of relevant factors,the number of permanent residents,urbanization rate,carbon emissions per unit of construction industry output value,per capita GDP(gross domestic product),and carbon emissions per unit building area were selected from the perspectives of population,economy and technology.The six factors of amount and carbon emission intensity are used as the influencing factors of the carbon emission of the construction industry in Jiangsu Province,and the six influencing factors are analyzed by combining the scalable random environmental impact assessment model(STIRPAT)and the ridge regression method.Finally,on the basis of the model established above,using scenario analysis,three different scenarios are constructed to predict the future carbon emission trend of the construction industry in Jiangsu Province respectively.According to the composition of carbon emissions,the influence degree of each influencing factor,and the results of scenario analysis,it proposes targeted carbon reduction strategies for the construction industry in Jiangsu Province from four aspects: building material consumption,population,economy and the construction industry itself.The main research findings include the following:(1)From 2005 to 2019,the carbon emissions of the construction industry in Jiangsu Province showed a fluctuating upward trend,and indirect carbon emissions and carbon emissions in the operation phase were the main sources.Among them,the carbon emissions from cement and steel account for most of the indirect carbon emissions.(2)The influence degree of the six influencing factors from small to large is: carbon emission per unit of construction industry output value(0.0116),carbon emission intensity(0.0607),per capita GDP(0.2078),carbon emission per unit building area(0.6523),Urbanization rate(0.6813)and permanent population(1.8062).A comprehensive analysis of the influence degree and contribution rate of the six influencing factors shows that the carbon emissions per unit of construction industry output value and carbon emission intensity have relatively little impact on the carbon emissions of the construction industry.Among the other four influencing factors,the number of permanent residents and urban The influence of urbanization rate is relatively large,and the influence of per capita GDP and unit building area carbon emissions is at a medium level.Therefore,it can be considered from the four aspects of per capita GDP,unit building area carbon emissions,urbanization rate and the number of permanent residents.Reduce carbon emissions.(3)According to the previous research results,set up three different scenarios for research.Under the three scenarios,the future carbon emissions of the construction industry in Jiangsu Province have a downward trend.The reduction rate(28.46%)is the largest in the positive scenario,followed by the baseline scenario(22.80%)and the smallest in the negative scenario(4.05%).Therefore,when other factors change to varying degrees in strict accordance with the development goals,reducing the growth rate of carbon emissions can effectively reduce the total carbon emissions.Although this study only studies the carbon emission factors of the construction industry in Jiangsu Province,and puts forward carbon reduction strategies accordingly,it also has certain reference significance for the carbon reduction research of China’s construction industry.