Analysis Of Carbon Emission Factors In Construction Industry Based On STIRPAT Model

As a pillar industry of the national economy,the construction industry plays a vital role in China's economic and social development.But at the same time,the resource consumption and environmental pollution are becoming more and more prominent.According to the statistics of IPCC,the construction industry consumes 40% of the global energy and produces36% of the global carbon emissions.Moreover,the carbon emission of construction industry in Shaanxi province accounts for about 20%~30% of the total carbon emission.Therefore,it is of great theoretical and practical significance to estimate the carbon emission in the whole life cycle of construction industry in Shaanxi province,identify the influencing factors of carbon emission by stages,and put forward energy saving and emission reduction measures for construction industry in Shaanxi Province according to the research results of the influencing factors.The whole life cycle of the construction industry is divided into six stages: building materials production,building materials transportation,engineering construction,operation and use,building demolition,and construction waste treatment,so as to construct the carbon emission estimation model of the whole life cycle of the construction industry.According to the model,the influencing factors of carbon emissions in construction industry are studied in stages,and 17 influencing factors such as steel consumption and wood consumption are summarized.In order to explore the relationship between influencing factors and carbon emissions,take the construction industry in Shaanxi Province as an example to calculate the carbon emissions in the whole life cycle of the construction industry in Shaanxi Province.Thegrey correlation analysis method is used to study the correlation between carbon emission factors and carbon emission in construction industry in Shaanxi Province.According to the research results,the biggest influencing factors of grey correlation degree in each stage are cement production,road transport distance,electricity consumption,urbanization level and completed area of construction industry.In order to conduct a more in-depth study on the influencing factors of carbon emissions in the construction industry,from the four levels of population,economy,technology and energy,eight main influencing factors with high grey correlation and representative are selected in Shaanxi province construction industry carbon emission factors,respectively are the cement production capacity,highway transportation distance,electricity consumption,labor productivity of construction enterprises,number of permanent residents,industrial structure,proportion of urban population and completed area of housing construction enterprises.STIRPAT model is used to calculate the contribution rate of main influencing factors to the carbon emission of Shaanxi construction industry.According to the level of contribution rate and uncertainty of major influencing factors,five important influencing factors of cement production,permanent resident population,industrial structure,urbanization rate and completed area of construction enterprises,and the key factors of industrial structure are selected to construct scenario prediction analysis of influencing factors of building carbon emissions in Shaanxi Province.The baseline scenario,general constraint scenario and strong constraint scenario are designed to predict the carbon emission of Shaanxi construction industry from 2020 to 2030,and suggestions on energy conservation and emission reduction of Shaanxi construction industry were put forward according to the forecast results.