Vulnerability Assessment Of Fine Chemical Industrial Park Based On Structural Equation And Cloud Model

With the rapid development of China’s chemical industry,the safety standard has gradually become the focus of the industry’s attention,and is also a difficult and painful point for the industry’s development.The policy level actively promotes the "chemical industry into the park",guiding the agglomeration and standardized development of the chemical industry,and promoting the safety,green and intelligent level of chemical parks.In case of an explosion or other accident,it is likely to trigger a catastrophic chain effect of domino accidents.This paper introduces the concept of vulnerability to prevent accident risks in fine chemical parks,analyzes the characteristics of fine chemical parks and the composition of disaster-bearing bodies,and proposes a vulnerability evaluation method for fine chemical parks based on structural equation model and cloud model.First of all,in order to evaluate the vulnerability of fine chemical parks,the vulnerability of materials is introduced,considering that fine chemical parks are more densely populated and more materially concentrated than ordinary chemical parks,and the vulnerability evaluation index system of fine chemical parks with19 indicators in 4 dimensions of "personnel,facilities,materials and environment" is constructed.The meaning of each evaluation index and its quantification method are explained in detail.Secondly,to address the problem of determining the weights of fine chemical park indicators,the structural equation model was used to analyze the relationship among the indicators,and the rationality of the questionnaire was analyzed through the reliability and validity tests,and then the structural equation model of fine chemical park was constructed.The weights of each vulnerability evaluation index of the fine chemical park were determined.Finally,the cloud model is used to evaluate the vulnerability level of the fine chemical park.In this paper,three typical fine chemical parks(Xiangshui Chemical Industry Park,Hangzhou Bay Shangyu Economic and Technological Development Park,Lianyungang Chemical Industry Park)are used as examples to carry out the analysis,and the SEM-cloud model is used to evaluate the vulnerability,obtain the vulnerability level of each park,and draw the vulnerability level cloud map.Finally,the vulnerability factors affecting the fine chemical parks are analyzed through the data,and suggestions and measures for improvement are proposed to verify the rationality of the method.The research results show that the vulnerability evaluation method of fine chemical parks based on structural equation model and cloud model proposed in this paper adopts inverse and then forward normal cloud generator to effectively convert qualitative concepts and quantitative data into each other;the vulnerability size order is Xiangshui Chemical Industry Park > Hangzhou Bay Shangyu Economic and Technological Development Park > Lianyungang Chemical Industrial Park;the quality of personnel,material storage,park location,and the layout of enterprises in the park are The most important influencing factors of vulnerability are studied,and reasonable suggestions are made.This study provides reference opinions and guiding directions for the safety of fine chemical parks from the perspective of vulnerability,and has certain theoretical significance for reducing the risk of safety accidents in fine chemical parks.