Research On Safety Production Emergency For Chemical Industry Park Based On Immune Mechanism

Chemical industry park (CIP) has become the main development pattern of the chemicaland petroleum industry. The chemical accidents still happened all around the world, thoughthe management and technology of accident-prevention has made great progress in the pastseveral decades. CIP is capital-intensive, technology-intensive and equipment-intensive;furthermore, some CIPs are near to the densely populated area. So the accident risk of CIPshould be in control and be acceptable. Risk management not only needs improving theaccident prevention for diminishing the probability of occurance, but also needs improvingthe emergency management which could less the severity of consequrnces. Obviously, it isreally meaningful for how to improve the emergency management of CIP.Based on the immune mechanisms, this paper focused on the research of CIP’s safetyemergency from the following aspects:Ⅰ) Interaction mechanism that safety emergency acts on the evolution of the accidentsin CIP was analyzed. From the aspects such as organization, function and mechanisms, thesimilarities between immune system and safety management of CIP were identified. Theoccurring-mechanism and evolution processes of the accidents were presented based on thesesimilarities. The evolution processes of the accidents in CIP were consisted of incubationstage, forming stage, occurring stage and decubation stage. The safety emergencymanagement could be able to enhance the immunity of the safety immune system, and couldbe able to reduce intensity of safety antigen system. It has deep influences on the four stagesof accident evolution.Ⅱ) The maturity indexes system of safety emergency of CIP was designed, and theweights of indexes were calculated. Learning the principles of immune and combing thefunctions of safety emergency in the situation of accident state and no-accident state,thirty-seven indexes were selected to evalue the maturity of safety emergency of CIP. Throughthe IAHP and expert investigation questionnaires, the weights of the indexes were calculatedthrough the Matlab and Excel.Ⅲ) The maturity calculating model of safety emergency of CIP was built. Considering the adaptive and nolinear characters of safety emergency of CIP, the BP nueral network wasused to build maturity calculating model. The maturity calculating model could calculate thematurity grades of nine factors related to safety emergency of CIP. They are safey emergencymaturity, maintaining of safety emergency system in no-accident state, responsing of safetyemergency system in accident state, safety emergency resoures, personel and troop of safetyemergency management, organization and plan of safety emergency management, function ofrisk checking and pre-warning, function of emergency handling and function of emergencyrecovering.Ⅳ) The maturity calculating model of safety emergency was applied into assessment ofthe safety emergency level. Selecting certain CIP in Guangdong province to be applied object,the input datum was got from expert investigation questionnaires. Its safety emergencymanagement condition was analyzed quantificationally through the values of indexes thatwere calculated by the maturity calculating model. The improving countermeasures of safetyemergency management of this CIP were presented according to the calculated results of themodel.