Simulation Study On Traffic Carbon Reduction In Small And Mid-Sized Cities Under Carbon Peak

In recent years,with the increase of urbanization rate and the improvement of motorization,a large number of small and mid-sized cities have developed rapidly,and the traffic pollution brought by them has become increasingly serious.In order to reduce road traffic carbon emissions and reduce traffic pollution,in response to the call of"carbon neutrality and carbon peaking"put forward by China at the 75th session of the United Nations General Assembly,this paper analyzes the current situation of traffic pollution control research at home and abroad,and studies the influencing factors and carbon reduction paths of traffic carbon emissions in small and mid-sized cities,which provides a basis for road traffic emission reduction governance in small and mid-sized cities in China.Firstly,taking small and mid-sized cities as the research object,the"bottom-up"algorithm was used to calculate the target annual road traffic carbon emissions of small and mid-sized cities.Using the LMDI decomposition（Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index）,the factors that affect carbon emissions were analyzed from three aspects:people,vehicles,and roads.The contribution values and contribution rates of the driving factors were calculated,and then the impact effects of different driving factors on traffic carbon emissions were analyzed.Secondly,based on the analysis of driving factors,the transport energy consumption and carbon emission system of small and mid-sized cities is divided into three subsystems:transport participants,mobile pollution sources and transport infrastructure construction.By analyzing the causal relationship and feedback mechanism between various elements through a causal tree,a causal relationship diagram and a stock flow diagram of the subsystem were established.Based on this,equations for variables in the model were set,and a system dynamics model for traffic emission reduction governance in small and mid-sized cities was established.Then,using the scenario analysis method,from the five aspects of transport infrastructure construction,carbon emission factors of fuel,traffic volume,traffic environmental protection investment and governance efficiency,the single strategy scenario and combined strategy scenario are proposed,and appropriate strategic indicators are given according to the development status of small and mid-sized cities.The road traffic carbon emissions under 15scenarios are simulated,and the emission reduction effects under various scenarios are compared,we have found carbon reduction strategys that can peak traffic carbon emissions in small and mid-sized cities.Finally,taking Tangyin County,Henan Province as an example,based on its panel data,calculate road traffic carbon emissions,calculate and analyze the contribution value of driving factors.Introducing data into the system dynamics model constructed in this paper,the vensim simulation platform was used to predict the baseline scenario of Tangyin County and the total CO₂ emissions under the fifteen scenarios proposed in this paper.The results indicate that the increase in motor vehicle ownership in Tangyin County is most closely related to the increase in carbon emissions.To achieve low and peak carbon emissions,scenario ten needs to be implemented.Based on the current traffic situation in Tangyin County,short-term carbon reduction needs to be led by traffic demand management strategies,reduce motor vehicle travel volume,and be assisted by technology development strategies and government support strategies for governance;long term carbon reduction needs to develop transport infrastructure construction strategies on this basis to reduce traffic congestion.The research of this paper provides a plan and decision-making basis for road traffic emission reduction and governance under the goal of carbon peak for small and mid-sized cities.