Decoupling Of Agricultural Carbon Emission And Agricultural Economic Growth In Guizhou Province

The era of high carbon economy is becoming the symbol of global economic growth,and the problem of climate change caused by the emission of greenhouse gases is becoming more and more serious.It has a great impact on human society and economic development,advocating energy conservation and emission reduction,low carbon economy has become an inevitable choice to adapt to the development of The Times.The year 2020 is the first year of "carbon neutrality".As the world’s largest developing country,China shoulders the heavy burden of low-carbon development and has put forward the vision of "carbon peak and carbon neutrality".As the second largest source of greenhouse gas emissions,agriculture plays an important role in carbon peaking and carbon neutrality.Therefore,the development of green agriculture is urgent..Guizhou Province is the only agricultural province without plain support.As92.5% of its area is mountainous(hilly),it has the characteristics of typical mountainous agriculture.The available area of arable land is small,and the soil fertility is also very low.Guizhou Province is a typical karst area.With the application of agricultural materials(fertilizers,pesticides,etc.)in the process of agricultural production,the continuous increase of agricultural carbon emissions in Guizhou Province is directly caused.In recent years,with the decrease of agricultural materials invested in agricultural production in Guizhou Province,the development module of low-carbon agriculture in Guizhou Province has achieved initial results,and the growth rate of agricultural carbon emission reduction in Guizhou Province has been restrained to a certain extent.In the future development of agricultural economy in Guizhou province,how to realize the green and circular development of agricultural carbon emission and how to realize the transformation and upgrading of agriculture are the top priorities for Guizhou Province to deepen the structural reform of agricultural supply side,promote the transformation of Guizhou agriculture to high-quality development and promote the construction of ecological civilization.Based on the current situation of agricultural development in Guizhou Province,this paper takes 1999 to 2020 as the time series data,and starts with the total amount of agricultural carbon emissions,the driving factors of agricultural carbon emissions and the intensity of agricultural carbon emissions.Seven agricultural carbon emission source indicators including agricultural land input(i.e.,fertilizers,pesticides,agricultural mulch,farming and agricultural irrigation),agricultural energy and paddy field emissions were selected to measure the total amount and intensity of agricultural carbon emissions in Guizhou Province.The study on the decoupling elastic relationship between agricultural economic growth and agricultural carbon emissions in Guizhou province is based on the Tapio decoupling model and the quantitative decomposition model of decoupling elasticity,and the relationship characteristics of the two can be calculated,thus providing necessary reference for the formulation and implementation of carbon emission reduction policies in the process of agricultural production in Guizhou Province.Finally,on the basis of the previous research,some suggestions are made.The results show that:(1)Overall,the total agricultural carbon emission of Guizhou Province from1999 to 2020 showed a trend of first increasing and then decreasing,and the inflection point appeared in 2016.From 1999 to 2016,the total amount of agricultural carbon emissions showed an increasing trend year by year,until 2017,the total amount of carbon emissions began to show a downward trend.From the perspective of the sequential growth rate,it fluctuates up and down,reaching the highest value of10.68% in 2010,and decreasing to less than 1 percentage point after 2016.After 2017,the speed is negative for three consecutive years.It can be seen that Guizhou Province has achieved initial results in the strategic deployment of agricultural emission reduction in the 13 th Five-Year Plan.Reducing energy investment in chemical fertilizers and other chemicals remains central to achieving agricultural emissions reductions.(2)In terms of intensity,the agricultural carbon emission intensity of Guizhou Province gradually increased from 79.04kg/hm2 in 1999 to the highest value of79.04kg/hm2 in 2012,which was the first increase process.From 2013 to 2016,there was a second increase from 76.52kg/hm2 to 78.57kg/hm2,and then a decrease year by year from 2017.(3)In terms of structure,taking 2020 as an example,carbon emissions from fertilizers,pesticides,agricultural film,agricultural diesel,irrigation,ploughing and paddy fields accounted for 69.46%,5.07%,17.90%,4.39%,1.75%,1.43% and13.48% of the total agricultural carbon emissions in Guizhou Province,respectively.(4)Through the decomposition of influencing factors,it is found that the total effect is gradually reduced in the end.The restriction effect of agricultural carbon emission reduction in Guizhou Province was in the order of efficiency factor > labor factor > industry factor > economic factor.(5)In the two decades from 1999 to 2020,the relationship between agricultural carbon emissions and agricultural economic growth in Guizhou Province is mainly weak decoupling.To achieve complete decoupling between the two,according to the research results,it is the key to improve the efficiency of agricultural carbon emissions.(6)Based on the analysis of the results on the annual time scale,the economic decoupling elasticity has been at a positive growth level.The efficiency decoupling elasticity,labor decoupling elasticity and structure decoupling elasticity show great fluctuation.In order to promote the low-carbon,green and circular development of agriculture in Guizhou and properly handle the relationship between agricultural economic growth and agricultural carbon emission,Guizhou should strengthen agricultural scientific and technological innovation,optimize agricultural industrial structure,organize agricultural training regularly,increase government policy support,and establish a distinctive brand image.