International Comparative Study On Characteristics And Driving Factors Of China’s Carbon Emissions

Addressing climate change is a common issue for all of humanity,and countries need to take on’common but differentiated responsibilities’.However,there are certain differences in the economic development level,industrial structure and energy structure of different countries.Therefore,how to identify the stage of carbon emission and explore the differences and commonness of driving factors of carbon emission on the basis of accurately understanding the carbon emission characteristics of different countries is of great significance to the future relevant policy formulation of China and the international community.This study is divided into three main parts.In the first part,based on the World Bank database from 1960 to 2020,the Mann-Kendall（MK）test and Spearman’s Rho（SR）test are used to analyse the trends of CO₂ emissions and socio-economic data for219 countries and regions worldwide.In the second part,the BP structural breakpoint test is used to classify typical countries into carbon emission stages for comparative analysis.In the third part,an analytical model of the drivers of carbon emission change based on the Generalized Divisia Index Method（GDIM）is constructed,and eight factors（output size,carbon intensity of output,energy consumption,carbon intensity of energy consumption,population size,carbon emissions per capita,output per capita,energy intensity）are accurately quantified on the typical The impact of carbon emissions in a typical country.The results show that:（1）The MK test and the SR test reach the consistent conclusion that a total of 42countries and one economic union have achieved carbon peaking,46 countries are at the carbon peaking plateau.Most countries have the following characteristics at peak carbon:GDP per capita reaches US$2í10⁴ to US$5í10⁴,the share of tertiary sector is higher than 50%,the share of fossil energy consumption is still higher than 60%,and carbon emissions are at the declining stage of the Environmental Kuznets Curve,and economic development is decoupled from carbon emissions.China is still in the rising stage of carbon emissions,and China’s cumulative carbon emissions per capita are much lower than the international average.（2）The typical countries selected for comparative study are China and the United States,where carbon emissions underwent sudden structural changes in 1985,1994,2003 and 2010 and 1980,1987,1996 and 2008 respectively,each forming five different carbon emission growth paths.（3）The results of the factor analysis show that there are commonalities and differences in the stages and cumulative drivers of carbon emission change between China and the United States from 1970 to 2019:for China,output size has always maintained a positive driving effect and has the strongest effect,contributing a total of8126.33×10⁴t CO₂ between 1990 and 2015;output per capita has always been the strongest negative driver of carbon emissions,contributing-6336.59×10⁴t CO₂ over the 25-year period covered by the statistics.For the US,output size also maintains a positive driving effect at all stages,with a cumulative contribution of 1154.54×10⁴t CO₂ over the 25-year period,while output carbon intensity,output per capita and energy consumption intensity show negative driving effects at all stages,with the largest cumulative negative contribution being output carbon intensity.The largest negative cumulative driver is output carbon intensity,which contributes-735.09×10⁴t CO₂ over the 25-year period.Finally,the paper proposes differentiated policy recommendations based on the different historical carbon emission characteristics and drivers of countries around the world:（1）Developed countries that have already achieved carbon peaking and related countries should take the initiative to assume legal responsibility for their own carbon emissions,take the initiative to assume the share of emission reduction obligations and"common but differentiated responsibilities",and provide financial resources and technology transfer to developing countries to help the sustainable development process of developing countries.（2）For China,it should learn from the emission reduction experience of relevant countries,further adjust its energy structure and increase the proportion of renewable energy consumption;set regional differentiated carbon peaking targets and promote the peaking of regions with the conditions to take the lead;optimise its industrial structure and accelerate the construction of a new national economy led by the service industry.